What's upward with the headline? My dua sen on the KT (UBS) mini-series.
Was it a divergence inwards opinion? The response is no. KT can't seem to sympathise the divergence betwixt electrical flow work organisation human relationship deficit in addition to financial deficit. OK granted, peradventure KT failed first-year Econs, nosotros don't know. Maybe he didn't fifty-fifty accept Economics, I hateful nosotros have got police line graduates in addition to fifty-fifty engineering graduates entering financial services in addition to investment banking all the time.
For non-finance readers, the higher upward views past times KT is similar a so-called football game practiced coming on TV commenting that Pogba played so bad for Liverpool. You every bit a football game fan would CRINGE no end. That's in all likelihood how Tony Pua, Ong Kian Meng in addition to most of the financial community felt.
I asked about my older friends inwards the industry, 2 who have got worked with KT at Jardine (HK) before, anecdotally their comments ended with "...an absolute xxx#### who never has anything goodness to say nigh Malaysia.." (or something to that effect). Not my words but those were the words I heard.
How the hell does UBS allow someone seemingly incompetent to rising so high? Well, it happens inwards MOST industries in addition to to most people inwards high positions. Some people are merely lucky, some were born to the right parents, some have got relatives inwards high places, some have got relatives who could mitt them work organisation on a argent platter, some merely inherit the the world in addition to all, some merely so happened to attend the same schoolhouse or were classmates to powerful people ....
... some because their gift of the gab is ameliorate than their IQ, most larn to their positions based on the sales-ability (salesmanship)... whether you lot are CEO, Senior Manager, I don't attention what manufacture they are in, a lot of selling is involved. You sell the products in addition to services to clients, but to a greater extent than importantly, you lot have got to sell yourself to the conclusion makers inwards your theater ...
In the end, enquire people at the most senior positions everywhere... hold upward it Bursa, GLCs, the top xx listed companies inwards KLSE ... their ane hidden fright ... it is the same for all of us... "I HOPE NOBODY FINDS OUT HOW AVERAGE I AM"
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ubs-remains-positive-malaysias-longterm-prospects?fbclid=IwAR0fNfd9gs7ew1IcrWfjgNuSBi-5q6Y5oN7UuhRkYgHb1xWctFC1WVd9yHE
KUALA LUMPUR (April 24): Swiss banking grouping UBS remains positive over Malaysia's long-term economical prospects, in addition to has forecast economical growth of betwixt 4.6% in addition to 5% inwards 2020.
In a disceptation today, the Singapore branch of UBS said the Malaysian economic scheme should start to run into improvement inwards its exports with a stronger currency, since the Chinese economic scheme is turning around.
“We have got every bit good late upgraded our 3, vi in addition to 12-month forecast on the MYR (versus the USD) to 4.05, from 4.15 previously,” UBS said.
Advertisement
In its statement, UBS every bit good sought to clarify sure misunderstandings arising from a recent video interview featuring its regional primary investment officeholder Kelvin Tay, aired on Bloomberg TV on Apr 12.
“In the context of the interview query on the equity outlook for the region, Kelvin had inadvertently used some wrong terms given the brusque duration of the “live” interview in addition to would similar to clarify the following: He was referring to the Malaysian government’s projected “fiscal deficit” of 3.4%, in addition to non “current work organisation human relationship deficit”.
He was every bit good referring to the government’s revenue in addition to non GDP, when he mentioned that cancelling GST would outcome inwards a higher dependence on fossil oil prices. He used the term “oil” to loosely refer to sectors that are closely correlated to fossil oil toll movements. In context of that discussion, he was referring to the financial deficit,” a UBS spokesperson said.
TONY PUA's article:
Current work organisation human relationship surplus
Firstly, Tay argued that Malaysia had a electrical flow work organisation human relationship deficit. This is quite scary every bit Malaysia has ever prided itself every bit an economic scheme with a electrical flow work organisation human relationship surplus, with our value of exports good exceeding imports beingness ane of the country’s key strengths.
Any analyst worth his tabular array salt roofing Malaysia should definitely know that.
For example, inwards 2018, Malaysia registered a electrical flow work organisation human relationship surplus of 2.3 percent of the GDP. Given Malaysia’s real salubrious merchandise surplus so far, the country’s electrical flow work organisation human relationship residue volition rest inwards surplus for 2019.
Malaysia does, however, have got a moderate financial deficit which is typical of developing countries. For 2018, the deficit was 3.7 percent of GDP, piece it is projected to autumn to 3.4 percent this year. The finance government minister has every bit good projected the financial deficit to farther spend upward to iii percent for 2020 in addition to less than 2.8 percent for 2021.
Malaysia is a diversified economy
Tay every bit good claimed fossil oil revenue made upward thirty percent of Malaysia’s GDP.
This is completely incorrect. Malaysia is well-recognised past times rating agencies in addition to the investment community every bit having a fairly diversified economic scheme with mining (including the fossil oil in addition to gas sector), manufacturing in addition to services making upward 7.9 percent, 23.0 percent in addition to 55.5 percent of the 2018 gross domestic product respectively.
Perhaps Tay was trying to highlight that fossil oil in addition to gas revenue is expected to contribute or so 30.9 percent of 2019 authorities revenue.
Even so, the UBS fund managing director failed to highlight that the underlying contribution of fossil oil in addition to gas revenue every bit a pct of authorities revenue is projected to hold upward solely 22.0 percent, afterwards fully discounting the one-off special dividend from Petronas.
As announced past times the finance government minister inwards his budget speech, a one-off special dividend of RM30 billion is offered past times Petronas with the specific intent of contributing to RM37 billion of GST in addition to income taxation refunds which were hidden in addition to undisclosed past times the previous regime.
In fact, fossil oil in addition to gas revenue every bit a pct of the government’s amount revenue has been declining over the years, with the peak beingness 44 percent inwards 2008.
Fiscal deficit target is intact, with pro-growth policy inwards place
As a straight outcome of Tay’s misguided agreement of Malaysia’s economic scheme above, he went on to conclude that weak Brent unsmooth fossil oil prices – currently hovering at $71 per barrel – would negatively impact Malaysia’s growth since the Government was projecting Brent to average US$70 per barrel this year.
Tay failed to admit the fact that every US$1 spend upward inwards unsmooth prices volition solely impact or so RM300 ane thou 1000 of authorities revenue, in addition to therefore fifty-fifty with a US$10 decline, the overall revenue impact volition solely hold upward RM3 billion.
Any such negative impact on authorities revenue every bit a outcome of weaker fossil oil prices would hold upward compensated past times the novel revenue measures which were announced past times the finance government minister inwards his budget speech, but has non been included inwards the government's official budget figures. The novel measures are expected to enhance an additional RM4 billion to RM5 billion of revenue for the government.
Government enjoys comfortable majority
Finally, Tay claimed a political paralysis inwards the country. This is untrue. On the contrary, most volition for sure concur that Malaysia was paralysed past times the 1MDB crisis earlier the modify of authorities inwards May 2018.
However, with the modify inwards power, Malaysia has immediately received a fresh renewal impetus, with the authorities pushing hard for greater transparency, improved governance, reduced corruption in addition to increased competition.
These reforms are difficult, volition create brusque term headwinds in addition to volition accept some fourth dimension to demonstrate results. Nonetheless, the persistence of the novel direction to deportment out the reforms volition for sure strengthen the country’s fundamentals to create continued economical growth when the global economic scheme recovers its steam.
The novel authorities commands a comfortable bulk inwards the Parliament, controlling 63 percent of the seats inwards the Lower House. The fact the Malaysian authorities has successfully renegotiated the cost of multiple large high-profile infrastructure projects downwards proves in that location is no paralysis in addition to indeed, the authorities is pressing on with diverse institutional reforms it promised to the Malaysian electorates.
Facts please
Bloomberg is a global media giant with humongous traction in addition to audience. Tay’s ‘sensational’ interview with Bloomberg has been viralled widely on the social media to cast real negative aspersions of Malaysia.
I would farther similar to province that nosotros welcome fact-based criticisms in addition to constructive commentaries. Malaysia, similar whatever other country, isn’t perfect in addition to is doing its best to recover from the harm caused past times the previous kleptocratic administration.
Bloomberg, with the mightiness it wields, for sure has a duty to fact-check data presented past times their guests, specially when the mistakes were so elementary. If the data is outright simulated in addition to damaging, they should hold upward corrected.
Comments
Post a Comment