This Week inwards Barrons: 10-6-2019:
Thoughts: “Unfair. Hah-hah-hah. Really, you lot think I’m unfair?” … The Joker
I saw some tidings this morning time together with straightaway thought of it as ‘unfair.’ Then I reminded myself that life is unfair. The game is to live prepared to acquire the curt destination of the stick together with figure out how to create that into a winning hand. Having said that, a recent stat was presented to me past times MJP: "80 percent of CEOs believe that they deliver a superior experience to customers, but only 8 percent of their customers agree." That is a MASSIVE disconnect. I can’t call upward the lastly fourth dimension perception together with reality were that far apart. Honestly, everybody struggles to deliver that 5-star experience – but to think you’re delivering four stars together with abide by out that you’re delivering one-half of a star is embarrassing to say the least. The realities of the concern ground are kickoff to mimic those of higher education.
For example, inwards higher instruction you lot tin pass 4 years together with $250,000 earning a grade at MIT – or ‘for free’ engage inwards over 2,000 of MIT’s on-line courses. The selection is yours? Traditional instruction requires an up-front payment together with the pupil to give-up their liberty of choice. In commutation for compliance, the pupil is rewarded past times essay out scores together with a certificate of completion. The belief inwards that certificate is extraordinary. Students together with families volition merchandise time, focus, geography, together with a lifetime inwards debt to obtain that slice of paper. Learning, on the other hand, has been proven to live mostly self-directed. Learning is non virtually changing a grade, but rather virtually changing the way nosotros think together with view the world. Learning is voluntary together with ever available, but unless given every bit role of a credentialed programme – most of us would rather click on some other video or swipe left together with motion on. There is a unmarried exception – the ‘High Performer’. ‘High Performers’ volition ever take learning because it is at the pump of what they do. ‘High Performers’ volition never ask: “Will this live on the test?” It’s unfair to those paying $250,000 that it’s never been easier to learn. It’s unfair that the certificate has never been worth less, together with non nearly every bit of import every bit we’ve been led to believe.
To cook being unfair, nosotros demand to modify perception. The ‘4-star’ CEO needs to halt believing their ain press clippings, together with the ‘half-star’ client requires a dose of: ‘There is no gratis lunch’. The message from the CEO becomes client dependent. Scientists take heed to meliorate science. Bureaucrats answer to to a greater extent than power. Nerds dearest innovation. Teenagers follow their peers. Believers require authorization figures. Bankers volition demand you lot to trim risk. Engineers are convinced past times prototypes. Hustlers dearest the odour of money. Sports fans demand you lot to ‘cover the spread’. It’s unfair that in that location is no ‘one size fits all’ solution.
To bargain amongst all of those differing messages, abide by stories together with anecdotes that roll to a greater extent than or less together with back upward your data. Do NOT abide by information that supports a detail story because stories, feelings, together with outcomes are specific to an occasion. Stats, facts, averages together with correlations (on the other hand) are generic, broad together with deserve anecdotal support.
Interestingly, much of that Internet storytelling could receive got changed this past times calendar week when a European Court ordered that national judges receive got the authorization to strength Facebook to withdraw cloth deemed illegal inwards their dwelling theatre province – but shown to a greater extent than or less the world. That agency a courtroom inwards Kingdom of Belgium could acquit on what Brazilians are able to come across on Facebook. This allows 1 province to impose its speech communication together with story-telling laws on another country. It opens ‘Pandora’s Box’ to allow whatever province to extend their ain laws beyond their borders. According to LD, "The ruling is unfair and could fundamentally reshape the way online speech communication together with storytelling are governed. It could drag everyone downward to the storey of the to the lowest degree liberal country."
The ground is increasing becoming to a greater extent than together with more unfair. Decisions are to a greater extent than difficult, costly together with fourth dimension consuming – from concern together with instruction downward to ‘who’ you lot believe. I was talking amongst a grouping of people lastly nighttime together with nosotros all agreed: “Both instruction together with experience allow us to improve our ‘batting average’, but we’re all measured (admittedly unfairly) by how nosotros bargain amongst our mistakes.”
The Market: Wanna purchase a used Gulfstream? Trump’s marketplace strategy for re-election.
3 thoughts:
1. You know your companionship is inwards problem when the BOD announces: “We’re selling the Gulfstream.” Nothing’s scarier than having to sell a used Gulfstream ‘at market’. WeWork is the latest casualty of a rogue CEO’s greed together with stupidity. Interesting model until (duh) you lot start to exercise the math. There’s a lesson here – together with it’s not: ‘Only stone bands should ain Gulfstreams’ – although that’s non a bad lesson. The lesson is: “You tin delay the math, you lot exactly can’t ignore it.” In the market, in that location are a ton of negative elements setting up: (a) a record concentration of wealth & cash, (b) too many passive investors, (c) an inverted yield curve, (d) manufacturing that is inwards a global recession, (e) a contracting global economy, (f) ridiculous IPO valuations, together with (e) an involvement charge per unit of measurement ‘race to the bottom’ – which eventually volition create the same job we’re trying to solve.
2. Honestly, the argue nosotros pay thus much attending the ‘numbers’ together with ‘profitability’ at the fourth dimension a companionship goes world (IPO), is that really few tech companies move world piece profitable. And fifty-fifty those that do, are far away from achieving their long-term EBITDA margins. That agency that investors demand to sympathise how an unprofitable, fast growing concern eventually generates positive together with reliable cash flows. The higher the gross margins the faster it should hitting profitability – assuming profits are growing faster than expenses. Having said all of that, focusing on gross margin inwards a vacuum tin live a flake misleading. Plenty of companies be that generate meaningful EBITDA, together with withal grow at double digit rates: Apple = 31% EBITDA & 16% growth, Netflix = 11% EBITDA & 35% growth, Amazon = 12% EBITDA & 31% growth, Etsy = 18% EBITDA & 41% growth, Grubhub = 10% EBITDA & 50% growth, Chewy = -5% EBITDA & 69% growth, Canada Goose = 26% EBITDA & 41% growth, together with Lululemon = 25% EBITDA & 24% growth.
3. Finally, I wonder how Trump’s incentives may alter if he gets cornered amongst impeachment. According to TL: “Unless Warren seriously fumbles, she volition live the Democratic candidate. The markets won’t live comfortable amongst this, every bit her policies are decidedly anti-business. She’ll motion a flake to a greater extent than centrist inwards the full general election, but investors volition withal live terrified. If Argentina’s marketplace could drib past times one-half when Macri lost the primary, why can’t ours drib past times 30% if Warren is the candidate? Especially, amongst her leading inwards most polls against Trump.”
In which case, does a vicious marketplace turn down favor Trump? Imagine blaming Warren (over Twitter) for the marketplace crashing? Imagine scaring working people that their IRAs volition detonate, together with retired people that they volition lose everything – if Warren is elected? I don’t aid what your political leanings are, no 1 wants to lose a substantial percentage of their cyberspace worth. Warning voters of an impending 30% loss may live amazingly persuasive inwards an election – specially afterwards you lot remind people how successful you lot were inwards pushing the marketplace higher every bit the stock-pumper-in-chief. The marketplace wants to crash because the global economic scheme is rolling over. Trump for sure doesn’t desire to receive got the blame. If the marketplace starts crashing, why wouldn’t he blame Warren together with and thus strength it lower thus voters experience existent pain? That’s how you lot win elections. So are Trump’s incentives virtually to change? If so, the marketplace is NOT prepared for such a shift.
Info Bits:
- Forever 21: your favorite retailer from college – filed for bankruptcy together with is planning to closed 178 stores inwards the US. Guess those $3 T-shirts weren't gonna last Forever (21).
- We(Don’t)Work: WeWork has pulled its IPO filing. Dreams were crushed. The Gulfstream is existence sold.
- “Sit. Fetch. Come”: Tesla launched their novel Smart Summon feature, which agency your Tesla volition come upward to you lot when you lot telephone phone it. In other words, you’ll never receive got to walk to your auto again. Will it whorl over together with play dead too?
- “Let’s acquire out together with purchase something…” Oops – where? U.S. retailers receive got already announced over 8,200 shop closings this year, together with to a greater extent than or less 12,000 past times year’s end. That would almost double the tape of 6,700 closings inwards 2017.
- Pay to Play: College athletes inwards California volition shortly live paid. In 2023, The Fair Pay to Play Act allows athletes to turn a profit from their name, icon together with likeness.
- “We’re back…” Saudi says stone oil production is dorsum to preattack levels. The WTO says ‘no rush’ as merchandise menses growth is the slowest since the fiscal crisis.
- J.P. Morgan sez: “Developed fundamental banks volition come across the biggest synchronized easing since 2000.” All the major CBs receive got flipped from attempting to normalize rates, to slashing together with burning / inflating or dying. B. Bernanke 1 time said: “There won’t live a normalization of rates inwards my lifetime.”
- RECESSION = Manufacturing: U.S. data showed the weakest manufacturing sector inwards a decade – inwards recession since Q1 of 2019. September’s Class 8 heavy duty truck orders collapsed 71%.
- Prices plummet for Manhattan Apartments: the most inwards over 8 years.
- Bad Day for Brokerage Stocks: as Schwab, TD Ameritrade, together with E-Trade announced commission-free trading. Layoffs volition live coming soon.
- Drone Airline: UPS exactly won FAA approving for their fleet of delivery drones called: “Drone Airline”. Their foremost client is hospitals.
- Uber’s NEW money-maker: is an app that matches temporary workers looking for shift run amongst opportunities. Why can’t they run a profitable taxi company? Given they’re inwards concern together with losing money - who’s subsidizing them?
- Trade War expands: as the US of America plans to impose tariffs on $7.5B worth of European exports by the middle of October. Europe is expected to retaliate.
- “Houston nosotros receive got a problem…” Costco missed revenue estimates this week. I thought the consumer was strong?
- Ice, Ice Baby A “melting H2O ice cube” is how people are explaining HP’s printing business. They’ve cutting 16% of their workforce – fingers crossed for a plough around.
- Are you lot seeing this? SNAPs CEO believes that nosotros are 10 years away from smart spectacles existence widely adopted. I can finally occupation the word ‘glasshole’ again.
Crypto-Bytes:
- SoFi – the pupil loan refinancing center: is testing the cryptocurrency waters past times offering the powerfulness to invest inwards three digital currencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum together with Litecoin. Crypto volition complement SoFi's suite of app-based investing options, which include ETFs every bit good every bit automated together with active stock buying.
- BAYER is on the Blockchain: as it has agreed to run amongst Ant Financial, the payments affiliate of Alibaba, to railroad train a blockchain-based organization for agricultural output monitoring. They volition utilize blockchain tech. to growth efficiency, together with ensure the production of high-quality food.
- $24m Slap on the Wrist: Popular blockchain platform EOS, who raised $4.1B inwards its ICO, volition pay $24m inwards penalties to the SEC for conducting an unregistered token sale. The fine (a ‘slap on the wrist’) is a win for EOS together with crypto-at-large, showing that the SEC tin live reasonable inwards their assessments.
- “It’s non you, it’s me.” Just kidding, it’s definitely you. PayPal exactly pulled out of Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency projection together with Visa together with Mastercard are second-guessing their ain participation. The Journal says few companies desire to boost the projection publicly, leaving Facebook’s David Marcus to defend Libra past times saying: “Our commitment to the mission is to a greater extent than of import than anything else.”
Decentralization together with transparency are essential to whatever crypto-currency environment. Transparency volition live the hardest thought to sell to whatever authorities because truthful transparency is non selective. True transparency volition give insight into what our FED is actually doing, who’s paying politicians, together with a full general menses of funds throughout the market. However, global crypto-adoption volition assure no currency contest inwards the future. With every currency existence digitized, the truthful contest would come upward at the monetary policy level. People are kickoff to opt for currencies that can’t live seized, censored, or debased – every bit a shop of value. Right now, that only choice is Bitcoin.
Last Week: Are the wheels coming off – or did nosotros exactly curvature an axle?
Have the wheels come upward off, or are the axles exactly bent? Last calendar week nosotros saw PMI’s together with ISM’s inwards manufacturing that were putrid at best, together with actually poked a stick inwards the oculus of that "everything's great" narrative. The global economic scheme is slowing quickly. On 1 paw nosotros have: slowing manufacturing (weakest since the crash of 2008), incredibly depression velocity of money, no savings, together with immense debt levels. On the other paw nosotros have: cloaked QE4 together with stock purchase backs. Which 1 wins? In the curt term, they tin newspaper over the horrid economical numbers. But inwards the long run, nosotros acquire to a quest where all novel debt only services old debt – together with that’s when the music stops. That province of affairs is close.
Our FED has been doing their Repo operations every nighttime lately because all of the short-term money that is tied upward inwards previous debt. Banks don't desire to lend because they're afraid of non getting paid. I’m afraid that the FED game of cutting rates together with printing money is going to maintain a fiddling piece longer. Looking dorsum on the activity inwards August, you’ll come across ‘no man's land’ madness. With the mainland People's Republic of China merchandise mission coming upward together with the onslaught of earnings – you lot tin potentially await to a greater extent than chop. In the past, I've used the 200-day moving averages every bit a bottom of sorts, but play cautiously.
Weed: The Legalization Trend is widening together with picking upward speed.
- “Do I sell or exercise I move public?” As the U.S. together with Canadian marijuana markets maintain to mature, consolidation is inescapable. That, of course, raises the query of how cannabis related businesses tin lay themselves inwards the best province of affairs to receive got payoff of opportunities that volition arise from consolidation. According to Scott Greiper, president of New York-based investment grouping Viridian Capital Advisors, “There are buyers inwards the hall. But buyers volition non live interested inwards purchasing a cannabis theatre unless it’s good run – together with inwards closed proximity to profitability.”
- U.S. House Passes SAFE Banking Act: The U.S. House of Representatives passed the SAFE Banking Act lastly calendar week past times a vote of 321-103. It’s the foremost slice of cannabis legislation to live approved past times either sleeping room of Congress. 91 Republican members of the House voted for the bill, inwards improver to nearly all the Democrats. The mouth would allow cannabis businesses access to traditional banking past times removing penalties that banks currently confront for working amongst them. Although cannabis businesses sometimes create exercise to secure banking services, much of the manufacture – from growers to retailers – withal operate exclusively inwards cash.
- PA Lawmakers pitch adult-use marijuana using state-run stores: Pennsylvania recreational cannabis legalization was proposed lastly calendar week together with it calls for retail stores to live operated past times the province Liquor Control Board. The mouth has 23 co-sponsors together with includes these additional provisions: (a) a 19% retail sales tax, (b) a 10% taxation to live paid past times cultivators, together with (c) a July 1, 2020 deadline for the province Liquor Control Board to found regulations including cannabis licensing procedures. Remember, Illinois goes alive on Jan 1st, 2020.
- The National Cannabis Industry Association outlined a framework for regulating cannabis using the existing infrastructure of governmental agencies. Tier 1 (the tightest lane) would autumn nether the jurisdiction of the FDA. The agency would behavior trials, approve together with regulate cannabis drugs inwards much the same way it does existing prescription together with OTC medications. Tier ii covers cannabis products that receive got higher than 0.3% concentration of THC. This tier would live regulated similar alcohol inwards that it would live regulated past times province agencies together with the U.S. Alcohol together with Tobacco Tax together with Trade Bureau would provide federal oversight. Tier three would live regulated similar to nutrient together with dietary supplements, together with would include edible together with inhaled cannabis products amongst a negligible amount of THC. Finally, Tier four would include low-THC topical products that would live regulated similar cosmetics – focusing primarily on the improperly labeled brands.
- Industry leaders urge Congress to Legalize Cannabis: Nearly 800 cannabis concern together with policy leaders are calling on Congress to withdraw marijuana from the federal Controlled Substances Act. They said: “Americans are existence wound because of unregulated, illicit marketplace cannabis vape products. It is yet some other argue for real, comprehensive federal cannabis reform that volition allow the regulated, tested cannabis manufacture to dismiss illicit marketplace actors.” The letter is signed past times officials together with executives from the Marijuana Policy Project, 4Front Ventures, Berkeley Patients Group, Columbia Care Illinois together with hundreds more. It asks for Congress to straightaway reschedule cannabis together with regulate it similar alcohol. Congress currently is inwards respite together with it’s unclear whether lawmakers would receive got upward this variety of reform upon returning.
Next Week: Watch the FED Repos together with the Bonds…
Last calendar week nosotros were handed a gift past times virtually every brokerage theatre every bit they adopted ‘commission-free’ trading. The winners are genuinely the retail traders. The bid-ask spreads volition non change. Brokers volition withal live selling their order-flow. Last calendar week nosotros also learned that the global economic scheme was a lot worse than anticipated.
If adjacent calendar week plays out the way I suspect, nosotros volition start off stronger due to the mainland People's Republic of China merchandise anticipation, together with destination past times falling dorsum into the outlined ‘Volatility Box’ painted above. It’s the same range-bound trading box that nosotros experienced inwards August. If that becomes the case, ‘bear spreads’ are priced at virtually one-half the charge per unit of measurement of ‘call spreads’. If the marketplace is a fiddling flake stronger early on inwards the calendar week – you lot may want to purchase some lay spreads every bit protection.
We withal receive got our risks:
1. Our FED:
a. Due to the bad ISM information – in that location is at nowadays a 76% probability of a charge per unit of measurement cutting inwards October, together with a 90% endangerment of 1 past times December. This is why the markets recovered inwards the lastly one-half of the calendar week – along amongst the high probability of our FED announcing a novel QE policy. Markets initially LOVE lower rates together with QE. Unfortunately the existent numbers are pointing toward a important slowdown.
b. The Repo Marketplace continues to seize upward on a regular footing – requiring constant FED liquidity injections. This involvement inwards QE is coming correct when Nihon has announced that it is stopping its QE programs together with pronouncing them every bit ineffective inwards helping to rebuild their economy.
1. Trade War: tensions volition live starting upward 1 time to a greater extent than this week.
2. Earnings: will start inwards ii weeks – amongst B of A, JPM together with Goldman.
3. The Expected Move: of the SPX this calendar week is virtually identical to lastly week’s SPX expected move. That agency endangerment levels stay high.
4. The XLF touched 26.50: last week. That is my magic line inwards the sand. Below 26.50 on the XLF, the financials together with the full general markets lean to the downside. If you’re NOT curt the XLF, allow it opened upward together with curt them every bit they get to climb together with and thus flatten out on Tuesday / Wednesday.
5. The Bonds (TLT): continue to explode higher – farther collapsing involvement rates downward to 1.515% inwards the TNX. If the TNX reaches virtually 1.43%, the equity markets volition get to answer dramatically to the downside.
The other side of adjacent week’s activity could live our FED’s hugger-mugger repo operations. Last calendar week our FED pumped $200B into the economy. Think virtually that. During 2008 together with 2009, our FED was doing QE at the charge per unit of measurement of $85B / month, together with lastly calendar week lonely they pumped inwards $200B. Last calendar week they also announced that the NY Fed volition behavior diverse $75B repo operations through Oct 29th. So, our FED’s residuum sail expanded past times $200B inwards Sept/Oct, together with they’re also going to maintain the repo’s into November. That is why stocks reversed their horrible slide lastly calendar week together with soared higher. Add to that stock purchase backs topping $1T this year, together with novel highs may no longer live a pipage dream. What virtually earnings, the slowing economy, together with the ascent inwards foremost fourth dimension unemployment claims? They volition easily spin that into dissonance together with chatter. Watch the levels on the bonds, the XLF together with the SPX above. Trade little together with receive got profits quickly.
Tips:
Top Equity Recommendations:
HODL’s:
- Aurora (ACB = $4.40 / inwards @ $3.07)
- First Majestic Silver (AG = $9.66 / inwards @ 10.50)
- Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $22.92 / inwards @ $22.17),
- DRD Gold (DGD = $4.74 / inwards @ $4.20),
- GBTC (GBTC = $9.79 / inwards @ $10.01),
- Pan American Silver (PAAS = $16.26 / inwards @ 18.00)
Crypto:
- Bitcoin (BTC = $8,100)
- Ethereum (ETH = $175)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $225)
Options:
- RIOT ($1.68):
o Bot Jan 17, Sold $3 Call / Sold $3 Put / Bot $4 Call for $1.85 CR
o Bot Jan 17, Sold $2 Call / Sold $2 Put / Bot $3 Call for $1.45 CR
o (can only lose money if RIOT falls below $0.70).
Thoughts:
- Oil (/CL) Years agone in that location was a theory that stone oil production would turn down to null – leaving cars, planes together with lawnmowers out inwards the cold. That hasn’t happened, but stone oil did peak a distich weeks agone every bit it briefly touched $62. Since then, it’s been slinking dorsum downward every bit the dollar has been stronger together with slowing economies demand less oil. It’s been downward for the past times 8 trading days, together with it seems similar it mightiness live a flake of an overreaction. With the constant possibility of some political or military machine disruption to the supply, the endangerment to stone oil is ever to the upside. That’s why a contrarian trader mightiness consider a bullish strategy on oil. If you lot are bullish on oil, together with thus curt the $48.5 PUT inwards the Nov expiration serial – because this has 77% probability of expiring worthless.
Follow me on StockTwits.com to acquire my daily thoughts together with trades – my handgrip is: taylorpamm.
Please live prophylactic out there!
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