This Week inwards Barrons: 9-29-2019:
Adam Neumann – x-CEO @ WeWork
Thoughts:
Dear Adam:
I think you’re the victim of what I telephone band ‘Participation Trophy’ collateral damage. By declaring everyone a winner, nosotros never genuinely flushed out WeWork’s conflicts inwards approach vs businesses model vs profitability. By continually singing kumbaya together with kicking-the-can downwards the route nosotros but allowed accredited investors’ bag books to dictate whether your fellowship had value. You rightfully maintained command of your fellowship past times giving your shares 20X the voting mightiness of others. But some other way to maintain command is to but focus on running a profitable organization, together with create sure enough yous never observe yourself inwards a seat where yous demand to beg someone for money.
Don’t acquire me wrong, I similar your concept, together with have got used your facility. I but believe that the ‘Participation Trophy’ super highway claimed some other victim. In hindsight, this video of yous amongst Ashton Kutcher dorsum inwards Jan is rather representative of the mantra. Just head to all of the philosophical mumbo jumbo together with dorsum slapping that’s going on. This should live a must view for every MBA class.
I tin entirely imagine what it felt similar to reckon your ($60m) private Gulfstream jet go on the auction block – the same calendar week that yous basically heard the words: “You’re Fired”. And what it volition live similar to go through life without the mightiness to: fling tequila at strangers, sing RUN DMC annoyingly, and smoke pot illegally. It must live devastating for sure. You realize that in that location volition live massive layoffs due to your mismanagement – yes? Sources speculate that over one-half of WeWork’s 15,000 employees (9,000 of whom have got been hired within the finally 2 years) volition live set off. And SoftBank (your largest investor) stands to lose billions if it doesn’t cease upward writing off all of their $10B investment.
Participation Trophies allow us to believe that nosotros tin create out together with win way to a higher house our ‘weight class’. They convince us that nosotros tin displace straight to scale – without commencement ‘passing Go’ together with trying to ‘Collect the $200’. I retrieve Uber’s master copy vision. It was a dark motorcar service for the elite. But amongst Softbank’s immediate injection of billions, it was never allowed to finalize a occupation concern model – but rather instantly thrown into shark-infested waters amongst yet some other ego-maniacal CEO. Today, Uber’s ambitions stretch into: nutrient couriers, scooters, electric bikes, and truck drivers using its service to observe jobs. It fifty-fifty hopes to start testing drone deliveries soon, together with electrical aircraft within 2 years. Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber’s CEO, has talked of Uber existence the “Amazon of transport”. They’re introducing an app that will: “become the operating scheme for your daily life” as it incorporates world carry options along amongst its other features. The reasons for Uber’s shift are no secret. Every finally one of Uber’s businesses lost money last quarter – to the melody of losing over $5B. Shares have got tumbled, together with its main occupation concern model is nether assail from regulators. Uber’s vision for the futurity – rattling much similar your own, Adam – has an number amongst profitability. Unfortunately, Ford says that autonomous driving volition non live hither for at to the lowest degree 2 years, together with past times that fourth dimension Uber volition have got run out of cash. Sound familiar?
To money SG: the key to little occupation concern success is to build a ‘Ratchet amongst Leverage’. Using electricity every bit the example, i time communities gained access to a niggling electricity, they rapidly uncovering that they needed to a greater extent than of it. The productivity increases due to electricity – created to a greater extent than income together with to a greater extent than demand for electricity. It became a one-way ticket to success.
By allowing the ‘Participation Trophy’ mentality to exist, yous never received the exercise goodness of learning how to win together with how to lose. And at nowadays (no doubt) you’re finding it expensive to larn those lessons inwards the courtroom of world opinion. I believe the failure of WeWork volition displace us to query grading our innovations on the amount of money they raise. Instead, it may displace us to revert to viewing them to a greater extent than through a profitability together with sustainability lens – which is a adept thing. I believe that WeWork has reset the kumbaya landscape forever. Looking dorsum at WeWork constructively, why didn’t you: Raise prices, Improve services, Frame a unlike story, Serve a unlike client and/or segment, Change your downstream effects, Earn to a greater extent than trust, Make unlike promises, together with fifty-fifty Do things that genuinely affair to little businesses?
Thank yous Adam together with give cheers yous WeWork for existence the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. Per HL: “When there’s no shame inwards failure – yous acquire WeWork. When there’s no boundary inwards founder command – yous acquire the Softbank ‘Vision’ Fund.” Fake money + Fake growth = Fake returns. The world markets have got produced xxx to 50% declines inwards some major IPO’s similar Slack, Uber, together with Lyft. I give cheers yous for changing the game BACK to numbers, timing, together with conflict resolution. Once 4 major dominos start to autumn the other way (Slack, Uber, Lyft together with at nowadays WeWork) – conversations start to alter toward measurable profitability together with multipliers vs ‘fuzzy math’, ‘goodwill’ together with ‘community EBITDA’. #thanksWeWork.
The Market:
A span observations:
- Alibaba (BABA) is trying to pause out of a long menstruum of consolidation. The stock has held upward genuinely good every bit the merchandise state of war drags on.
- JP Morgan (JPM) is at an all-time high. I wouldn’t purchase it, but it’s impressive to see.
- Apple (AAPL) is close an all-time high together with the stores are packed amongst the novel iPhones together with iWatches. Photos are the novel global language, making the photographic idiot box camera the ‘killer app’. Apple’s prices are dropping which volition create to a greater extent than ‘follow through’ at a fourth dimension when they are increasing services such as: payments, credit, banking, content (subscription) together with gaming (subscription).
- Netflix (NFLX) has been the large FAANG loser inwards 2019. They have got lost pricing mightiness every bit the ground fills upward amongst subscription services. I think they volition eventually partner amongst Tinder together with Airbnb instead of competing amongst them for content.
- Bond buying: has cranked upward similar in that location is no tomorrow. Somebody is keeping rates downwards together with pulling out all the stops. Shortly we'll live hearing almost some other yield inversion. So, there's a lot to hold this marketplace soggy. You don't pour that form of money into bond ground if yous think everything is rosy.
In general, if the race is to ground on the lowest rung inwards the ladder – that’s a race that can’t live won. A race for ‘cheap at all cost’ is a fool’s bet. As shortly every bit someone gains the lead, someone else volition lower their standards together with accept a shortcut to acquire fifty-fifty lower amongst less quality. After lineament suffers – together with then self-esteem together with and then trust. I empathise marketplace forces every bit good every bit anyone, but it’s pretty clear that in that location is an alternative to bottom-feeding, clickbait, come-ons together with trickery. There remain some brands that are committed to working toward the top. I focus my attending on those opportunities to create a production / service for a focused audience – that is thence adept that people volition desire to utter almost it.
Info Bits:
- ‘The Boss’ turns 70: Bruce ‘The Boss’ Springsteen turned seventy finally week. Hard to believe that he’s never had a #1 striking on the popular charts.
- Largest peacetime Repatriation: 600k travelers were stranded exactly about the ground when British tour operator Thomas Cook collapsed – cancelling all flights, vacations, together with leaving 21,000 without jobs.
- When the Unicorn falls, the passenger goes amongst it: Juul pushed vaporized tobacco into the mainstream – reaching a $38B private valuation finally year. Altria purchased 35% of Juul for $12.5B finally twelvemonth together with their shares are downwards 35% YTD. Juul’s mission is: "Improve the lives of the world's i billion adult smokers past times eliminating cigarettes." How does that equate to: (a) 20% of all underage, high schoolhouse kids vaping, together with (b) it's non clear vaping is healthier than smoking.
- Because dating wasn't already stressful: Tinder launched "Swipe Night": a make-your-own-adventure interactive show. The 4-episode mini-series starts Oct 6th within the Tinder app, together with each episode expires after vi hours. Your decisions decide your dear destiny.
- Zuck's coming for dinner: Facebook unleashed a $149 Portal TV that’s all almost a photographic idiot box camera that tracks your movements for “Watching Together”. Ladies together with gentlemen, “Privacy has exactly left the building.”
- “Gimme a break…” The biggest tidings for KitKat since the introduction of the KitKat Chunky was the launch of its novel $17 luxury bar. Perfect for when you're inwards the mood to pay 4 times what yous commonly pay for something.
- “Santa, I’d similar Amazon for Christmas…” Amazon is coming out amongst a ton of novel hardware this opor-garai flavor that includes: wireless headphones, a smart ring, a smart oven together with spectacles amongst microphones thence yous tin chat amongst Alexa. Yep, retrieve Google Glass – it’s back!
- Remember 1994: when the average U.S. tech fellowship went world after 4 years – instead of today when they go after 10 years.
- Tesla went higher – whaaat? Tesla shot higher when an e-mail leaked showing Elon Musk saying: “We have got a shot at achieving our commencement 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter, which is an incredibly exciting milestone for our company!” Where exercise yous think Tesla would live if nosotros got to read all of Elon’s e-mails?
- Job Confidence falling: Confidence levels inwards the task marketplace peaked inwards mid 2018 together with have got at nowadays fallen over 70% since the high. Confidence inwards obtaining a adept task is at its lowest grade since 2013, together with since the finally recession 2008.
- Consumer Confidence – non thence hot: as it took a dive inwards September amongst growing economical concerns almost merchandise wars together with the economy. The Conference Board’s index cruel 7% inwards August – the largest drib inwards ix months.
I can’t believe it – they’re bringing dorsum my Google Glasses. For a brief instant inwards time, those awkward, camera-toting eyeglasses became a geek’s badge of honor, every bit good every bit a potential vision of the future. That Google Glass vision never materialized. Those individuals that used them to tape social interactions became known every bit “Glassholes”, and many wearers found they caused headaches. But worry not, both Amazon together with Facebook have got revealed their ain plans for high-tech spectacles – showing that Google was but ahead of its time. Of the two, Amazon’s Alexa-powered “Echo Frames” are closer to launch. They volition reply to phonation commands, but don’t have got whatsoever photographic idiot box camera or augmented reality features. Facebook’s plans are to a greater extent than ambitious, every bit their spectacles volition include augmented reality that tin projection virtual objects together with digital information over their plain of view. Smart spectacles are oft seen every bit the adjacent stair after the smartphone: “We cannot facial expression at our phones without looking away from the ground exactly about us”. Google Glass may live gone, but its hangover lives on.
Crypto-Bytes:
- Really – a Blockchain Bill: The House of Representatives passed legislation calling for the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to study “innovative technologies” – including blockchain – to ameliorate the bureau’s operations. The “bill makes sure enough that nosotros are using the best technology scientific discipline nosotros have got available to observe together with halt the money laundering that makes all these crimes non entirely possible, but financially profitable for cartels, traffickers, together with terrorists,” said Representative Anthony Gonzalez (R) Ohio.
- Tokenizing your ‘Hoop’ paycheck: In partnership amongst crypto theatre Paxos, NBA guard Spencer Dinwiddie is looking to heighten $13.5m past times tokenizing the commencement twelvemonth of his three-year, $34.5m contract. Investors inwards the securities offering volition earn involvement through Dinwiddie’s bi-monthly paycheck. The Brooklyn Nets guard said that his contract is fully guaranteed, important investors exercise non adventure losing their funds if he is injured or otherwise unable to play.
- “Digital currencies are coming…” Dutch banking concern ING’s principal economist has said that “fully fledged”digital currencies volition live developed past times cardinal banks inwards exactly 2 to 3 years because the FB-led Libra cryptocurrency projection is putting pressure level on monetary authorities. With Libra slated for launch inwards 2020, cardinal banks would have got to create a displace inwards that timeline.
- “Please arrive stop…” Bitcoin remains on the defensive together with looks to set records amongst its largest weekly loss of 2019. The prospects of a sustained bounce facial expression weak, every bit the cryptocurrency is finding no takers, despite technical indicators reporting extreme oversold conditions. A deeper drib to $7,500 could live inwards the offing over the weekend.
Why did Bitcoin take a major striking this week, falling 8% on Th morn after diving to a greater extent than than 15% on Tuesday? Well, it exactly thence happened that The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) launched physically settled bitcoin futures trading through its Bakkt platform early on inwards the week. BTC is at nowadays trading exactly about $8,000 after weeks of steady trading inwards the $10,000 to $11,000 range. The drib i time once to a greater extent than says: if yous don’t believe inwards Bitcoin’s long-term potential – steer clear. Or differently phrased: “Can’t stand upward the rut – go out the of the kitchen.”
Last Week: It’s all almost correlation coefficients.
Last calendar week was all almost correlation coefficients. A high correlation coefficient (something unopen to 1) agency that markets are moving together (higher or lower) inwards tandem. A depression correlation coefficient (all the way downwards to -1) agency that on whatsoever given solar daytime financials (for example) could live upward together with technology scientific discipline down. The lack of correlation keeps the S&Ps inwards a tight range. I believe this ‘lack of correlation’ is almost to end. The financials are the gum that’s asset this marketplace house together, but they are beholden to what’s going on within the bond market. And meanwhile, the technology scientific discipline sector is starting to selloff / diverge lower.
Normally, when markets go volatile – everything moves cohesively every bit if they were one. For example, on large ‘down’ trading days, 93% of all stocks volition live moving inwards the same direction. When markets go highly volatile (to the upside or the downside) – things go tightly correlated. Right at nowadays we’re sitting inwards 50/50 ground – together with on the verge of those large correlations kicking dorsum in.
Factually finally week:
- The Q’s, together with the FAANG’s were downwards 2% for the week,
- Energy was downwards 3%,
- Consumer Staples were upward 1% on the week,
- The SPY was off 1%,
- Utilities were higher past times 1.5%, and
- The Financials finished the calendar week flat.
Correlation is a unsafe thought correct now. The marketplace is drifting lower fifty-fifty amongst a 50/50 advance spend upward line. The non-correlated sectors appear to live coming inwards line, together with should live moving to a greater extent than inwards lock-step amongst the residual of the marketplace adjacent week. The VIX (volatility index) is exactly about eighteen – thence clearly the pros reckon the upcoming volatility, together with the VVIX (the volatility of the volatility index) remains over 100. So we’re sitting on a powder-keg. Even adjacent week’s expected displace inwards the S&P is almost $55, which is 12% higher than finally week’s expected move. Let’s acquire create to rumble adjacent week.
Weed: What a wild calendar week it was. Politicians were busy…
- Molson’s going all CBD on us: Molson-Coors (citing increased demand for nonalcoholic beverages) has started distributing to over 1,000 locations – 2 brands of nonalcoholic drinks infused amongst hemp extracts inwards the Denver area. It’s starting to sell: (a) Colorado's Best Drinks, a line of hemp-infused sodas together with flavored drinks; together with (b) DRAM Apothecary, a line of hemp-infused sparkling waters combined amongst other botanical extracts.
- NY Governor wants the part to legalize recreational marijuana: New York’s Gov. Andrew Cuomo is urging neighboring states to go together on futurity recreational cannabis policies – a displace that could potentially create a to a greater extent than grade playing plain for marijuana businesses inwards adjoining states, if adult utilization is approved. “We’re going to have got a coming together Oct 17 where we’ll pose together regional partners together with endeavor to utter that through,” said Cuomo. States should review issues similar taxation, THC content, together with volume. “You don’t desire people driving distances to purchase marijuana products together with and then driving back,” he said. “My goal is to have got a proposal past times Jan that I tin create to my N.Y. State legislature.”
- PA Governor calls for legalization of recreational marijuana: Gov. Tom Wolf wants to legalize recreational marijuana for adults inwards Pennsylvania. "I said inwards the past times that I didn't know if Pennsylvania was create for this," Wolf said. "I believe Pennsylvania is create for this. 68% of Pennsylvanians are inwards favor of legalizing recreational marijuana.” Pennsylvania Attorney General Eugene DePasquale said: "My enquiry shows that regulating together with taxing marijuana for adult utilization could generate upward to $581m inwards novel revenue annually."
- U.S. House passed cannabis banking nib amongst bipartisan support: U.S. House lawmakers approved overwhelmingly past times a 321-103 vote legislation that would pave the way for fiscal institutions together with insurance companies to serve state-legal marijuana businesses without fright of federal reprisal. 91 Republicans voted for the measure, inwards a showing of strong bipartisan support. Neal Levine, CEO of the Cannabis Trade Federation said: “Allowing lawful cannabis companies to access commercial banking services together with cease their reliance on cash will greatly ameliorate world safety, increment transparency together with promote regulatory compliance.”
The Senate is laying downwards the FDA gauntlet: In its Agriculture appropriations nib it gives the FDA xc days to render the commission a report, together with 120 days to number a policy of enforcement discretion amongst regard to sure enough products (including ingestibles) containing CBD. Such enforcement discretion shall live inwards upshot until the FDA establishes a procedure for the utilization of CBD inwards products that include security studies for intended utilization per product, together with makes a determination almost such product.
The FDA was already expected to number a regulatory update on CBD this fall. I believe the agency takes a middle-of-the-road approach to speed the availability of lawful, hemp-derived CBD inwards nutrient together with dietary supplements every bit described inwards a July xxx op-ed inwards the Washington Post past times old FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. Gottlieb’s framework would involve a menstruum of enforcement discretion that would instantly allow low-dose CBD inwards foods together with supplements thence long every bit products run into sure enough weather (good manufacturing requirements, traceability, security levels for purity together with potency). However, each of the variables inwards Gottlieb’s outline would demand to live defined inwards the context of CBD, which would probable all the same accept at to the lowest degree some other vi months.
Next Week: On the Verge of Volatility…
Bonds are poised to drive the adjacent equity move. Bonds correct at nowadays are a binary merchandise / a coin-flip. Every major establishment out in that location is long bonds, together with the entirely argue that they would sell them would live profit-taking. After all:
- Nobody cares almost involvement rates anymore – because nosotros already know they’re headed dorsum to zero.
- And our FED has already telegraphed (via the repo-market) that it volition plow on quantitative easing when the ‘red light’ goes on.
Since bonds (/ZB) have got rallied from $144 to $164 over the past times ix months – whatsoever sell-side activity would increment involvement rates together with ignite the equity marketplace – specially the financials. Honestly, the financials exercise non perform good inwards depression involvement charge per unit of measurement environments.
Stocks together with ETFs of involvement to me:
- Facebook (FB) has had some important sell-side activity lately. It smashed through finally week’s expected displace to the downside, together with whatsoever breakdown adjacent calendar week volition accept all of the FAANGs + MSFT amongst it.
- Starbucks (SBUX) = I’m looking for continued selling adjacent week.
- Costco (COST) = similar to SBUX, but it has earnings adjacent week. I would NOT curt Costco earlier earnings – but hold back until the dust settles afterward.
- JP Morgan (JPM) = I wouldn’t curt inwards JPM correct earlier earnings, but I desire to live curt the financials – specially inwards a depression involvement charge per unit of measurement environment.
- Homebuilders (XHB) = are upward 32% on a YTD basis. Given we’re talking recession, shorting is non out of the question.
- Utilities (XLU) = are upward 24% YTD together with are out-performing the S&P, Amazon, & Google. I would rest long. If you’re non long – acquire long.
- Altria Group (MO) = amongst an 8.37% yield, I would live long. I would advise selling covered calls if you’re purchasing the stock.
- Silver (SLV) = has taken a striking lately but the long side is beneficial inwards a falling involvement charge per unit of measurement environment.
- Financials (XLF) = acquire short.
Tips:
Top Equity Recommendations:
HODL’s:
- Aurora (ACB = $4.62 / inwards @ $3.07)
- First Majestic Silver (AG = $9.63 / inwards @ 10.50)
- Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $23.83 / inwards @ $22.17),
- DRD Gold (DGD = $4.60 / inwards @ $4.20),
- GBTC (GBTC = $9.83 / inwards @ $10.01),
- Pan American Silver (PAAS = $16.15 / inwards @ 18.00)
Crypto:
- Bitcoin (BTC = $8,100)
- Ethereum (ETH = $160)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $215)
Options:
- RIOT ($1.72):
o Bot Jan 17, Sold $3 Call / Sold $3 Put / Bot $4 Call for $1.85 CR
o Bot Jan 17, Sold $2 Call / Sold $2 Put / Bot $3 Call for $1.45 CR
o (can entirely lose money if RIOT falls below $0.70).
Thoughts:
- Apple (AAPL = $218.82) Even though AAPL is entirely the 2nd largest fellowship inwards the world, it all the same has game. In what volition probable live an excuse for Austin traffic to acquire worse, AAPL volition live assembling its novel together with expensive Mac Pro desktop inwards the same Austin, TX industrial plant life that built the older version – after some tariff waivers convinced the fellowship non to build them inwards China. AAPL’s had a strong rally for the past times vi weeks – after falling on its earnings finally July. That’s pushed its volatility lower, amongst its IV rank at entirely 22% together with actual IV at 27%. Apple’s adjacent earnings are coming upward on November 7, which could potentially assist maintain AAPL’s rally on speculation of strength on novel iPhone sales. AAPL’s dropped a flake over the past times span of days, together with that could live an chance for an AAPL bull to acquire long. If yous are bullish on AAPL, the long telephone band vertical that’s long the $215 Call together with curt the $220 Call inwards the November expiration is a bullish strategy that has a 62% probability of making 50% of its max turn a profit earlier expiring.
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Please live security out there!
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Until adjacent calendar week – live safe.
R.F. Culbertson
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