This Week inward Barrons: 12-22-2019:
Thoughts:
To quote Stephen A. Smith (a caput ESPN commentator): “If I’m asleep – somebody else is awake. If I’m off – somebody else is working. And if those things are happening, they’re thinking that they tin lav lead hold me – which agency that at some signal inward fourth dimension they’re going to human face upwards me to examination in addition to consider if I’m ready. And at that signal I volition annihilate them to present them that they were never really create at all.”
Stephen – give cheers you! I genuinely appreciate someone that practices in addition to preaches: hard-work in addition to homework every bit their keys to success. I recollect yous saying: “In my view, every workplace has rules in addition to people lead hold to capitulate to them if yous desire to work. And if yous don’t desire to capitulate to those rules, in addition to so snuff it honor some other job. The fairness or equity of those rules does non matter, because we’re large boys in addition to large girls. Those who brand the golden rules are those who lead hold the gold. It’s also the boss who determines whether your locomote is skillful plenty – non you. You do non acquire to lead hold your mitt out for somebody else’s money, in addition to define what the standards of success are. If anybody could define their ain success, what sort of world are nosotros living in? You’d lead hold a whole bunch of people who are mediocre at their jobs – spending the company’s money. That’s non how the existent world works. I’m distressing if that makes yous uncomfortable. But I’m a dark man, in addition to I ever experience replaceable. No affair what I’ve done, no affair how much I’ve produced, at that topographic point is ever someone that thinks they’ve done more homework than me. They are waiting for me to brand a mistake, so they tin lav justify non marrying me. And I’m fine alongside that.”
Stephen knows that the way he looks at things frequently rubs people the incorrect way. I frequently wonder: What if today, just for today, nosotros didn’t settle? What if nosotros saw exactly the changes nosotros needed to make, in addition to sacrificed to brand them? What if nosotros all laid aside everything else, in addition to focused just on what’s important? What if nosotros ONLY did the locomote that mattered? I’ve ever wondered what would happen.
Maybe, inward some companies – that’s what’s happening now. You see, 2019 is on rails to live the highest number of CEO departures on record. The previous tape was held past times 2008 – when the economic scheme was embroiled inward the fiscal crisis. This apparently poses the question: Where the heck are all the CEOs going in addition to why? After all, stocks are at an all-time high. CEO pay is based upon salary summation stock grants. If yous thought that your companionship was going to do good going forward, why on globe would yous bail out now? Why wouldn't yous ride the wave, live seen every bit a to a greater extent than successful CEO, in addition to collect fifty-fifty to a greater extent than stock options?
Oh it’s because CEOs have done their homework and consider things every bit they really are: bloated, overdone, unsustainable, in addition to create to blow. CEOs are bailing on the companies they helped to create earlier everything comes crashing down. Factually:
- Fund managers galore are seeing 2020 every bit a recession year.
- Manufacturing, sales, trucking in addition to air freight are all at multi-year lows.
- Real profits peaked inward 2015.
- Year over year, profits are downwards 2% from 2018 - 2019.
- The FED is doing $500B inward curt term repos just to maintain our banks afloat.
- GAAP earnings are non-existent, in addition to corporate debt loads are so large they can't peradventure snuff it along to pay the interest.
In 2008, companies didn’t implode because the CEOs left – the CEOs left because they saw their companies virtually to implode. Corporations neglect when they: (a) don’t listen, (b) don’t engage, in addition to (c ) don’t exercise much curiosity or empathy for their customers. All they’re proving right now, is that all the FED money inward Earth CAN newspaper over whatever mistakes. But the ‘really large hitters’ know exactly what’s going on. They’re actively doing their homework, and per Stephen A. Smith – commencement to “annihilate” via M&A the smaller in addition to less fortunate inward hopes of withstanding the upcoming war.
The Market:
As Ai has taken over buying in addition to selling inward the marketplace place, it volition do the same inward the expanse of defense. I late watched a fascinating documentary: “Killing inward the Age of Algorithms.” Over the side past times side 10 years nosotros volition have:
- Tanks that drive themselves,
- Drones that pick their ain targets, and
- Machine guns alongside built-in facial recognition software.
The scary role was that now-a-days virtually anyone tin lav purchase a kit online in addition to create a gun from parts – without a background check. The trouble organisation of defence is virtually to change, in addition to potentially non for the better.
The skillful word is that the American consumer is every bit predictable every bit ever. In an historic menses of ecommerce, 70% of Amazon shoppers never click past times the initiative off page of search results. That’s because the platform’s homogenized production listings – title, price, photo, in addition to star rating – are built for search, in addition to non discovery. As a result, sales are to a greater extent than virtually SEO than virtually finding novel or innovative products. And every bit for video, the top 3% of video creators accounted for nearly 90% of all total views on YouTube. Even those who broke into that coveted top 3% were nevertheless solely earning virtually $16,800 annually. In Asia, there’s a existent monetization of short-video happening. On China’s largest ecommerce platform, 42% of production pages include short-videos in addition to alive streaming is growing quickly. Thus, it’s no surprise that curt video apps are the side past times side frontier for ecommerce inward the US, fueled past times the rising of native shops in addition to integrations alongside pop third-party platforms. We’re probable to consider to a greater extent than video existence incorporated into Amazon’s production pages fairly soon.
Factually, 2019 has seen the LARGEST outflows from U.S. equity usual funds in addition to ETFs inward 28 years. ($248B + $92B = $340B inward withdrawals). But the equity marketplace is upwards 24% this year. The Bloomberg Group reported: "In a twelvemonth when stocks worldwide lead hold kept hitting records, Stanley Druckenmiller (widely considered the greatest hedge fund managing director of his generation) has barely eked out a return." Why is that? It’s because this marketplace is non real. It's non based on earnings or fundamentals. For the past times yoke of years, if yous can't acquire comfortable alongside the thought of buying stocks just because the FED volition force them higher – you’ve missed out. Mr. Druckenmiller (like David Tepper in addition to most hedge fund managers) can't seem to potable the FED’s Kool-Aid in addition to just snuff it all in. I can't blame him – I can't either.
Info Bits: If your little trouble organisation is a Unicorn – there’s ONLY 1 identify to grow it!
- Better Gift Buying: When buying someone a gift, it’s unlikely that you’ll delight them past times buying something that’s ‘pretty good’. You’ll do improve past times overpaying for something inward a cheaper category, where it’s apparently the best inward the world.
- Robinhood… the stock trading startup known for gratis trades, announced a cash direction service that pays 1.8% on whatever of your non-invested monies.
- Consumer Discretionary is #1 in addition to Technology is #2: These 2 sectors serve every bit representations of the dominant trends of teens. In Technology, software really did eat the world. The ‘cloud’ in addition to the ‘Internet’ lead hold covered everything. Consumer Discretionary reminds us that fifty-fifty later on the prior decade, American gluttony has remained resilient.
- That Disney Frozen magic: Frozen 2 just became Disney’s 6th movie this year to lead hold inward over $1B. Maybe the novel Star Wars could live their seventh earlier the clock strikes midnight on 2020, in addition to Bob Iger’s enemies plough into pumpkins.
- Barak Obama says things would live improve if women were inward charge: Hard to disagree there. #thanksObama
- Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’ … finally made it to #1 alongside its 602m downloads. That equates to over $60m inward royalties, but who’s counting.
- The Sackler menage unit of measurement transferred Billions during the opioid crisis: The Purdue Pharma owners withdrew to a greater extent than than $10B from the companionship from 2008 to 2017 – every bit scrutiny of the drug maker’s role inward the U.S. opioid epidemic intensified.
- Stagnating median wages: After World War II, reward doubled from 1940 to 1948, in addition to so doubled i time again past times 1979. But later on 1980, payrolls flattened all the patch worker productivity skyrocketed.
- Factually: Google is upwards 35% since June, Apple upwards 100% inward 2019, LULU upwards over 100%, Nike upwards 50% YTD, in addition to banks, biotechs & healthcare lead hold all done well.
- Fiat Chrysler-Peugeot Merge: Fiat Chrysler in addition to Peugeot lead hold announced a 50-50 merger deal. The novel companionship becomes the world’s fourth-largest automobile manufacturer, estimating sales of 8.7m vehicles annually. Their focus volition live on autonomous in addition to electrical vehicles.
- Haters gonna hate… but volition Elon lead hold the lastly laugh? Tesla closed at all-time highs on Friday. TSLA is upwards 26% YTD.
- Marc Benioff’s company… Salesforce (San Francisco's largest employer) appears to lead hold paid $0 inward federal income taxation lastly twelvemonth on its $7.8B inward gross turn a profit cheers to at to the lowest degree xiv taxation havens.
- The FDA is allowing Canadian drugs… to come upwards into the U.S. in addition to live sold past times wholesalers in addition to pharmacies. The destination is to lower the costs for patients – a top priority for the Trump administration.
- Ho-Ho-Ho … Fannie Mae… they’re anticipating Q4 housing starts to live upwards 4.5% in addition to 2020 starts to increment past times a whopping 10%. Oh Fannie Mae, abode sales inward Nov unfortunately FELL 1.5%. Sorry to outburst that balloon.
- Boeing’s 737 Max production stoppage volition deadening the economy… by virtually 0.5% of GDP. This comes after both Boeing in addition to the FAA ignored clear signs that the 737 Max planes were dangerous. Still, BA trades inward a higher identify its 2018 lows – at to the lowest degree for now.
- Sweden RAISES involvement rates to 0%. The Swedish cardinal banking company completed a 5-year experiment alongside negative involvement rates in addition to said: “The era of negative rates inward Sweden may good live over.”
- ASN = Apple Sports Network: Apple has held preliminary talks alongside the Pac-12 Conference in addition to MGM. Apple wants to improve its TV service. Sports is large inward the streaming wars in addition to a bargain would live a large measurement forwards for the company.
- 50% of the U.S. population volition live Obese inward 10 years… with 1 inward every 4 Americans experiencing severe obesity. The consequences could live deadly, given weight gain is straight associated alongside diabetes in addition to pump disease.
- Boeing can’t grab a break… as their Starliner spacecraft failed to accomplish its intended orbit. The trip was designed to convey cargo (eventually humans) dorsum in addition to forth to the International Space Station.
- Merry X-mas: U.S. Steel Corp (X) is laying off workers, cutting dividends, in addition to terminating stock buybacks. The Detroit facility volition suspend institute operations on Apr 1st, 2020 – potentially costing 1,545 manufacturing workers their jobs.
- 2019 was a skillful year… for IPO’s every bit activity striking a 5-year high.
Crypto-Bytes:
Most large engineering changes don’t come upwards out of nowhere. There are smaller ‘gateway’ technologies that predate in addition to forecast what is to come. As I think virtually crypto, I facial expression for these gateways. One is sure the fiscal speculation in addition to trading around crypto assets. That trading lone has brought millions to the crypto sector, in addition to is potentially the primary argue why people ain or lead hold owned crypto assets. Another mightiness live stablecoins that operate on closed or semi-closed networks. Stablecoins may non back upwards the broadest laid of applications envisioned past times projects similar Ethereum in addition to others, but they acquire hundreds of millions of people around Earth owning in addition to transacting alongside crypto assets. Finally, a new written report past times Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, suggests that blockchain-powered digital currencies could supercede cash payments inside the side past times side decade. The written report says that fiat currency may before long give way to novel alternatives. Their replacement would live a cryptocurrency that would to a greater extent than align itself alongside the digital future.
- A Token gesture: Venezuelan public sector workers, retirees in addition to the armed services personnel volition have a token gesture this Christmas. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced Fri that these citizens will be airdropped one-half a petro token ($30) every bit a vacation bonus this week.
- Old meets New: One of America's oldest banks is testing out the latest engineering inward a bid to appeal to clients. State Street Corp. is partnering alongside a cryptocurrency central in addition to custodian Gemini Trust on a novel airplane pilot aimed to allow investors to consolidate the reporting of digital assets stored on Gemini alongside traditional assets serviced past times State Street.
- Branching Out: Fidelity Investments is setting upwards a novel entity to serve European institutional investors inward digital assets. The novel trouble organisation volition live provided past times Fidelity Digital Asset Services – its limited liability trust company.
- Mailing Coins: Coinbase has been granted a U.S. patent to shipping Bitcoin through email. The patent details a organisation for users to brand cryptocurrency payments alongside electronic mail addresses linked to corresponding wallet addresses. I tin lav consider Coinbase offering neb paying via crypto inward the non also distant future.
- A lilliputian Christmas cheer: Blockchain-based payments theatre Ripple has raised $200 1000000 inward a Series-C funding circular led past times alternative property investment theatre Tetragon, SBI Holdings, in addition to VC theatre Route 66 Ventures.
- Bitcoin is on a gyre to… end 2019 on a positive notation in addition to significantly outperform traditional assets similar gilded in addition to stocks. Currently trading at $7,125, representing a 93% gain on a year-to-date basis.
Last Week:
- Monday: Mr. Lighthizer, one of our Pb negotiators inward the Chinese talks said: “The U.S. volition maintain the 25% tariffs on $250B of Chinese imports, but would bring down tariffs on $120B inward products to 7.5%. The tariff reduction volition lead hold effect xxx days later on the understanding is signed. The Chinese lead hold guaranteed to purchase $200B minimum of our products. By the instant year, nosotros volition just virtually double our exports of goods to China, if this understanding is inward place." As unsafe every bit it is upwards here, I wouldn't live against trying Walmart (WMT) over $121.70, Microsoft (MSFT) over $155.95, Cisco (CSCO) over $46.60, in addition to Morgan Stanley (MS) over $51.20.
- Tuesday: Unilever is i of the largest consumer packaged goods companies inward the world. Well, they just warned that they're NOT going to brand their sales in addition to earnings numbers for Q4. When yous create the real things necessary for daily living, in addition to yous consider falling growth, it solely agency i thing – the consumer is cutting back. I'm non surprised. 78% of ALL full-time workers said they alive paycheck to paycheck, upwards from 75%. 71% of all U.S. workers said they're straightaway inward debt, upwards from 68%. Remain cognizant of the fact that if this marketplace rallies into twelvemonth halt in addition to beyond, it has NOTHING to do alongside organic growth – it’s the FED.
- Wednesday: We’re basically treading H2O waiting for impeachment. There's no existent argue for anyone to sell straightaway – they’d lead hold to lead hold the taxation striking this April. If someone’s going to sell, in addition to so sell inward the novel twelvemonth in addition to force the taxes into 2021. Financials, chips, tech, in addition to some commodities should snuff it along higher. Names similar MSFT, CSCO, NVDA, AAPL, C, AXP, in addition to GS should go.
- Thursday: Our President was impeached yesterday. The marketplace couldn't aid less. That is because there's give-and-take that the Chinese volition live signing Phase I of the merchandise bargain soon. Any positive merchandise word gets the algorithms fired up. If I was looking for a trade, I similar LK to intermission out of its congestion. I similar Twitter (TWTR) if it tin lav acquire over its 50-day moving average in addition to unopen an enormous gap downwards it suffered lastly earnings season. Target (TGT) is out over its skies but looks similar it wants to snuff it higher. I liked Cisco (CSCO) earlier in addition to nevertheless similar it here.
- Friday: The FED residue canvass increased past times $43B inward the lastly week. That's an annualized measurement of $2.2T. Repo purchase agreements lead hold striking new all-time highs of $236B. That's quite the monetary injection wouldn't yous say? This morning time the DOW is opening higher, in addition to it seems we're going to snuff it along chugging higher belike halfway through January. This morning time nosotros got give-and-take that the mainland People's Republic of China bargain volition acquire signed inward early on January. Today is quadruple witching Friday. If yous involve a trade, lead hold a peek at the pattern on MNK. It's flirting alongside a quad-top at the 4 level. If it ever gets through in addition to holds, it could snuff it nicely.
This constant up-trend has strained the investment landscape. 361 Capital wrote an interesting slice that concluded:
- Beware of long-term risk / vantage expectations: It seems that a ‘free lunch’ has been available just past times purchasing large mega-cap stocks. Investors lead hold flocked into passive / index-related strategies – non without consequence.
- Valuation distortions environs us… and are usually the final result of abnormal (FED-related) property flows.
- At some point… these valuation imbalances volition live corrected past times the markets. We promise that the quondam adage of “markets remaining irrational longer than (active) investors tin lav stay solvent” does non apply inward this case. Investing is non slowly in addition to the passive tendency has made investing cozy in addition to neat for millions of people all these years. When things volition acquire messy is a skillful question, but they ever do.
Weed:
- Ontario is removing the cap… on the number of cannabis shops.
- Marijuana is on the ballot… in New Bailiwick of Jersey for 2020.
- 63% of the Kansas population supports… marijuana legalization.
- WAYV / Hypur launched… a digital, compliant payments in addition to ordering solution featuring "credit carte like" transactions alongside next-day wire in addition to ACH payments.
- Cannabis companies must differentiate themselves by: profitability, uncomplicated upper-case alphabetic quality structures in addition to through investor communication.
- Chicago mayor floats recreational marijuana thought for minorities Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is pushing a social equity program in which the urban heart in addition to soul would utilization upwards to $15m inward seed money to grow its ain recreational marijuana inward a “cooperative tillage center.”
- New York names Birenbaum every bit its cannabis czar: Mr. Normal Birenbaum is expected to assist New York legalize recreational marijuana inward the upcoming legislative session.
- Bud prices inward Colorado laid record: The median toll of a pound of marijuana bloom sold to a retail store inward Colorado rose to a tape $1,316.
- The U.S. Senate has confirmed Dr. Stephen Hahn to Pb the FDA: Dr. Hahn hasn’t said how he believes cannabis extracts such every bit CBD should live regulated, though he said at his confirmation hearing that he wants to consider to a greater extent than research.
- Oregon is banning CBD inward alcoholic drinks: which is a blow to marijuana in addition to hemp companies planning to come inward the growing field.
- Major League Baseball in addition to the MLB Players Association… announced that the league’s drug policy has been updated to allow the utilization of cannabis past times players. Synthetic THC products are nevertheless forbidden.
- Massachusetts rolled back… its vape quarantine issued inward November.
- The World Health Organization reiterated their opinion… that it finds NO populace wellness risks for CBD – effectively putting the number of toxicity to rest.
Next Week:
I think my favorite stock nautical chart of 2019 is Tesla in addition to I never traded it. The stock plunged this summertime solely to unopen Fri at all-time highs. The solely lesson hither that I’m aware of is that a lot of smart people that were curt the stock lead hold been crushed. It is difficult to bet against a cult stock. In marketplace land, the deadening grind higher continues. At this signal it’s moving on FOMO, in addition to of course of didactics one-half a trillion inward force money from the Feds. I hold back this to snuff it along through the twelvemonth end, in addition to at to the lowest degree one-half way through January, if non to February. They're going to jawbone us alongside mainland People's Republic of China merchandise hype, the Feds are accommodative, the Season is correct, in addition to everyone loves a rising market. Given NOBODY KNOWS what volition occur side past times side year, allow me percentage a few thoughts:
- The Nasdaq volition striking 10,000… at some signal inward 2020. I think at that topographic point are a lot of strong software in addition to engineering companies to IPO side past times side twelvemonth in addition to the backdrop for a rising marketplace remains strong alongside depression involvement rates in addition to an impeached President who needs a higher marketplace to live re-elected.
- Mega mergers volition continue: Energy has spent a decade underperforming; therefore, nosotros should consider some consolidation. In the fiscal services space, TD in addition to Schwab are just the commencement of what volition live some giant marriages. In technology, software M&A reached virtually $170B inward 2019, upwards 25% from $136B inward 2018. With SaaS penetration roughly 25%, there’s several hundred billion inward marketplace cap to live created inward the side past times side few years – so a 15% increment inward M&A seems appropriate.
- Shopify volition snuff it a $100B company. The companionship has the right platform in addition to mental attitude to double i time once again (assuming the markets play ball).
- As Go the Finnies, so Go the Market ... Last calendar week the financial ETF (XLF) closed inward a higher identify its pre-Global Financial Crisis high for the initiative off fourth dimension since 2007. This is potentially epic. If the financials breakout, nosotros could live closer to the commencement of a novel bull marketplace than the halt of one. And if the XLF continues higher, scout the ETF for the chip sector the SMH.
Tips:
Top Equity Recommendations:
HODL’s:
- Aurora (ACB = $2.25 / inward @ $3.07),
- First Majestic Silver (AG = $10.36 / inward @ 10.50),
- Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $20.04 / inward @ $22.17),
- DRD Gold (DRD = $4.76 / inward @ $4.20),
- GBTC Bitcoin (GBTC = $8.88 / inward @ $10.01),
- Microsoft (MSFT = $157.41 / inward @ $145),
- Pan American Silver (PAAS = $21.60 / inward @ 18.00),
Crypto:
- Bitcoin (BTC = $7,200),
- Ethereum (ETH = $130),
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $190)
Options:
- RIOT ($1.33):
- Bot Jan 17, Sold $3 Call / Sold $3 Put / Bot $4 Call for $1.85 CR,
- Bot Jan 17, Sold $2 Call / Sold $2 Put / Bot $3 Call for $1.45 CR,
(can solely lose money if RIOT falls below $0.70).
Thoughts:
- Twitter (TWTR = $32.13) This is a duplicate of lastly calendar week alongside an updated gain – because it remains my best thought out there. After dropping the equivalent of 5.8 criterion deviations dorsum on October’s earnings miss, TWTR has been trading inward a two-point range. But that relative lack of volatility doesn’t seem to agree the importance TWTR has inward our political in addition to cultural lives. You’d think TWTR would surge alongside every i of Trump’s tweets during impeachment, or Boris Johnson’s full-steam-ahead word toward Brexit. The upcoming Senate trial along alongside Brexit word could boost TWTR’s advertising revenues in addition to bust it out of its gain to the upside. If you’re bullish on it, the long telephone call upwards vertical that’s long the $32 Call in addition to curt the $34 Call inward the Jan monthly expiration is a bullish strategy that has a 61% probability of making 50% of its max turn a profit earlier expiring.
Follow me on StockTwits.com to acquire my daily thoughts in addition to trades – my handgrip is: taylorpamm.
Please live security out there!
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Until side past times side calendar week – live safe.
R.F. Culbertson
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