This Week inwards Barrons: 3-3-2019:
Is Tesla trying to construct money Selling Cars?
Major auto companies receive got given upwards on that task decades ago. The iii biggest money-makers for auto companies are: (a) trade-ins (giving you lot squat in addition to selling it for a lot), (b) selling you lot financing in addition to insurance (F&I), in addition to (c) service. Tesla is doing none of those.
The ground I withdraw this upwards is that I was sent the inwards a higher identify advertising – announcing the arrival of Tesla’s $35K Model 3. They proclaimed that such a depression cost was only available because they are shutting downward their retail stores, in addition to moving all sales online. It seems Elon Musk (Tesla’s CEO) sent an electronic mail to employees last Thursday explaining the company’s determination to cut its headcount inwards its sales in addition to marketing divisions past times moving vehicle sales solely online. As role of the announcement, Elon also warned that the fellowship would non plow a turn a profit inwards the initiatory off quarter.
But honestly, how exercise they hold back to construct a turn a profit – if they’re ignoring ALL of what the major players are doing to construct money? That’s until I was inwards the middle of ordering a Model iii in addition to arrived at the next screen:
Oh, for an additional $3,000 (+8.5%) – I could purchase the software that would engage highway ‘Autopilot’ from on-ramp to off-ramp. And for an additional $5,000 (a total +22.5% premium) – I could purchase the software that would allow ‘Full Self-Driving Capability’ to live delivered either at the cease of 2019 or 2020 depending upon who you lot believe. OK, so Tesla is using Apple’s job concern models: (selling hardware plus maintenance, software upgrades, etc.) – only without the powerfulness to accuse a ridiculous premium on the underlying device. Is Tesla hoping that it’s Ai software (akin to Apple’s iTunes & Siri) volition larn its customer’s driving patterns so good that the normal methods of making money: trade-ins, financing, in addition to service are completely unnecessary?
Well, I receive got to live honest: ‘Full Self-Driving Capability’ is pretty enticing. I genuinely wonder where the fully autonomous vehicle journeying volition atomic number 82 us. Samuel Schwartz in his book: No One at the Wheel- uses his experiences driving a NYC Taxi in addition to serving every bit NYC’s transportation commissioner – to deliver some thoughts:
Q: What volition it live similar when AVs (autonomous vehicles) are everywhere?
A: Given 90% of our world transportation is pathetic, nosotros could offering a lot to a greater extent than effective world transportation using AVs. But what if nosotros all travel on to drive our cars to operate – tell the cars to travel dorsum home, in addition to and so receive got them pick us upwards at the cease of the day. We would cease upwards using twice the amount of energy. People may alive farther away - encouraging the urban sprawl to intrude upon what remaining rural areas nosotros receive got left. AVs promote human inactivity, in addition to that volition displace an increase inwards diabetes, pump disease, in addition to cancer. [FYI: Estimates present AVs volition salve 1.3m lives/yr. inwards needless traffic collisions, but volition cost 5m live/yr. due to our rising inactivity.] Virtually every driving chore every bit nosotros know it volition live gone – causing a revolution non different 120 years agone when the auto initiatory off came on the scene.
Q: How volition our roads live impacted?
A: AVs exercise non veer or sway every bit much every bit human drivers do; therefore, nosotros tin can construct our traffic lanes to a greater extent than narrow in addition to create to a greater extent than of them using our existing infrastructure. [i.e. Each of the iii lanes on the New Bailiwick of Jersey Turnpike is currently 12 feet broad = totaling 36 feet. AVs only require vii feet – narrowing the existing roadway to 21 feet, in addition to potentially allowing for two additional lanes.]
Q: What nigh our parking structures?
A: Currently, 30% of all dry ground within of a urban heart in addition to soul is dedicated to parking. We’re already seeing a reduction inwards parking due to: Uber, Lyft, Via, Juno, Gett in addition to other ride-sharing companies. The AV volition live the greatest urban position out of belongings that nosotros receive got always seen since the Wild, Wild West. One job is that airports construct most of their money from parking – what happens when that revenue current goes away?
Q: What volition occur to our cities?
A: We’re already seeing urban parking lots travel mixed-use and/or residential environments. And alongside to a greater extent than people come upwards additional infrastructure requirements such as: sewage, water, in addition to electricity. But, if people pick out (instead) to alive farther from our cities in addition to so nosotros volition human face upwards a taxation number – because vacant dry ground produces no taxation revenue. After all, nosotros could all pick out to pass an hr commuting inwards our cars: working, doing social media, sleeping, or fifty-fifty watching a movie.
Q: What happens to all of the displaced drivers?
A: Urban drivers are already suffering. The value of a taxi medallion inwards New York City has fallen from over $1m to $250,000. But the existent stupor to the scheme volition live associated alongside trucking. One of the early on uses for AVs is for long-haul truck driver replacement. Right similar a shot trucking requires a driver, in addition to that driver is required to rest. Autonomous trucks tin can drive without stopping, in addition to volition only demand a driver at the finish – otherwise the 3,000 mile cross-country drive could live done alone. Delivery prices should plummet.
Q: What happens during the transition?
A: Mixing conventional automobiles alongside AVs is non a pretty story. It’s akin to 100 years ago, when nosotros had horses in addition to automobiles simultaneously on the roads. It was a chaotic in addition to the most deadly catamenia on America’s highways. Currently our federal authorities is maxim that it volition never outlaw human driving. We volition consider nigh that. I call upwards inwards really curt social club the non-autonomous auto is going to live outlawed.
Q: What nigh the auto industry?
A: The auto manufacture volition morph into 1 that sells auto rides rather than cars. The technologies associated alongside AVs volition demand to live updated regularly – in addition to driver-less fleets solely focused on keeping vehicle tech up-to-date volition serve that purpose. After all, presently at that spot volition live 300m hackable computers on wheels – carrying our most precious cargo unopen to – ourselves.
So every bit much every bit I consider the calorie-free at the cease of the tunnel, I’m even so non certain Tesla tin can construct whatsoever money. Comparing it to Apple, Tesla’s missing: (a) the ridiculously high cost production ($1,000 iPhone) , (b) the insurance side (Apple Care), (c) the educational slice (Genius Bar), in addition to planned obsolescence (iPhone half dozen battery). Oh yes, fifty-fifty Apple does trade-ins. And if I ignored all of those elements, at that spot is a job alongside stock valuation. Using the same P/E ratio every bit Apple (a skilful software / hardware company), Tesla’s stock cost should live to a greater extent than similar $30 in addition to non its electrical current $300/share. At to the lowest degree Tesla share-holders similar a shot know that at that spot is a $270 premium inwards every percentage of Tesla stock.
The Market:
It seems similar but yesterday when nosotros were inwards a behave market, in addition to all headed for the exists together in addition to forever. But, the twenty-four hours afterwards Christmas the S&P 500 turned on a dime in addition to has rocketed 18% higher inwards only 44 days. Michael Batnick position this ‘Killer Vees’ rally inwards historical perspective via the nautical chart below. This is the 9th fourth dimension stocks receive got experienced a ‘killer vee’ bottom since 1970. Everyone dislikes these types of nautical chart patterns. It makes purchase in addition to withdraw hold investors sweat, in addition to makes mincemeat out of most tactical investors. The nautical chart below shows the predicted ‘Killer Vee’ inflection betoken circled inwards red. On average, the S&P 500 was inwards a 20% drawdown province of affairs when the ‘Killer Vee’ signal emerged. The skilful intelligence is that 8 out of ix times – this signaled a major marketplace seat bottom. The bad intelligence is that 2001 was a large caput faux – in addition to there’s no means to know whether this 1 is similar 1982 (and nosotros travel on higher) or similar 2001 in addition to it becomes: ‘look out below’.
Info Bits:
- Discount War: Uber in addition to Lyft discounts receive got less to exercise with supporting you lot in addition to to a greater extent than to exercise nigh marketplace seat share. Lyft currently has 34% of the rideshare market, in addition to whatsoever extra riders are going to aid their upcoming IPO roadshow.
- The Customer Knows Best: According to a client satisfaction survey, consumers love Costco more than Amazon. It seems that at that spot is something to a greater extent than likable nigh a fellowship that has been offering gratis samples to America since 1983. As opposed to Amazon, a fellowship that has offered every bit much greed every bit convenience but sadly – no gratis pigs inwards a blanket.
- Who are you?: Best Buy was upwards 14% on an awesome earnings report. They had impressive Q4 earnings in addition to forecast strong full-year profits. But, I’m but non certain who even so shops at Best Buy – in addition to why?
- Wrong One: Fitbit dropped over 13% afterwards earnings – 1 time everyone realized that they were NOT the Apple Watch company. (Earnings stunk upwards the joint.)
- This Is How The Matrix Happened: FedEx is getting into the robot delivery game. The fellowship announced that it's using little robots going 10mph to deliver products for firms similar AutoZone, Lowe's, Pizza Hut, in addition to others. It has 1 wages over other bots – FedEx can climb stairs.
- What’s Big Brother think? Thailand passed a cybersecurity bill that lets the authorities access digital personal information without a courtroom order. The fine impress of the neb clearly states that officials tin can seize, search, in addition to construct copies of computers or other information if the authorities sees you lot every bit a safety threat.
- Lyft: Filed their paperwork for their multi-billion dollar IPO. They listing every bit a major withdraw chances factor: "We receive got incurred internet losses each yr since our inception in addition to may non live able to arrive at or maintain profitability inwards the future."Their revenues striking $2.2B finally year, piece their losses were $911m. Will you lot live buying shares?
- Martha Stewart: Isn't the most obvious of weed-advisors, but according to the NY Times in addition to Canopy Growth (CGC), Martha will "have an advisory role in addition to assist alongside the evolution in addition to construct positioning of a novel line of offerings for humans in addition to animals."Yes, pets are getting CBD. 2019 = endless possibilities.
- The key feature of ‘Enhanced Teams’ is: After years of analyzing data, Google flora that people’s backgrounds inwards a squad are NOT the #1 predictor for success – SAFETY is. It seems that the powerfulness for everyone to experience prophylactic inwards taking risks unopen to their squad members (free from embarrassment and/or punishment) was the number 1 chemical constituent for a team’s success.
- The most anticipated EV is: Harley-Davidson’s electrical motorcycle.
- What goes up… Charles Smith of the‘Of Two Minds’ blog says that housing prices are going lower across the country. The latest information agrees. The 20-city index shows abode cost growth is screeching to a halt, in addition to had the slowest mensuration of annual growth since 2014. Smith said that: “If the bubble took iv years to inflate in addition to rise, the retracement volition withdraw the same amount of fourth dimension in addition to much if non all of the rise.” He’s using the inwards a higher identify chart, only this fourth dimension at that spot are no to a greater extent than saves inwards the FEDs closet. The turn down volition start this yr in addition to run through 2025. Smith likes Scenario two inwards a higher identify inwards which prices plummet below the 2012 lows in addition to maintain on going – ultimately retracing the entire housing bubble gains from 2003. Smith’s indicators include: massive pupil debt, insufficient income to back upwards existing cost levels, in addition to the acquire out of Chinese buyers. “The economic scheme has changed, in addition to the sacrifices required to purchase a theatre inwards hot markets at today’s prices construct no sense. The only interrogation is how depression prices volition drib past times 2025.”
- Out of this world: Microsoft's novel augmented reality headset volition blow your mind, in addition to also blow a $3,500-hole inwards your wallet.
- Quoting Goldman: “US equity funds saw some other $4.6B outpouring inwards the latest calendar week – the twelfth consecutive calendar week of outflows.” So, for TWELVE consecutive weeks – to a greater extent than money has flown out of equity funds than into them. And yet for ix weeks inwards a row, we've gone higher. The respond of course of study is stock purchase backs in addition to funny money out of our dearest onetime FED.
Crypto Bytes:
- Wild, Wild West: In crypto-land, it’s hard to tell which coins are amend than others, or fifty-fifty legitimate. To guide you lot through the shootouts in addition to showdowns, cheque out Flipside Crypto. Their scoring scheme is called FCAS, and now you’ll know how salubrious a money genuinely is.
- Joseph Lubin (CEO of Consensys) says, “$4,000 is high for Bitcoin”.
- ICOs are back: Fetch.Ai raised $6m in 10 seconds on Binance’s launchpad.
- Warren Buffett says Bitcoin is a “delusion that attracts charlatans”.
- Abra CEO says JPM Coin is an illustration of enterprise Blockchain nonsense that is bringing to a greater extent than notoriety to Signet than JPM.
- Fake Dudes: BHB, a crypto projection based inwards China, raised $20m through a multi-level marketing arrangement. An investigation uncovered that of the iii squad members – two were totally faux – their photos beingness lifted from real-life professors who publicly deny whatsoever involvement alongside BHB. And in addition to so there’s the pyramid scheme that they used to sign people up.
- Seeking Sleuths: The crypto central Kraken is offering upwards to $100,000 to anyone who tin can aid solve this year’s biggest blockchain mystery: What happened to QuadrigaCX’s coins?
- Traders are using: Tron to purchase Mountain Dew, Dash to purchase French fries, in addition to the Binance Coin to purchase the novel HTC Exodus 1.
- Let’s Tokenize the World: Inveniam Capital Partners (ICP) is preparing to tokenize shares inwards 4 private existent estate in addition to debt transactions valued @ $260m. They volition start alongside the sale of tokenized shares of a WeWork-occupied edifice inwards downtown Miami, FL valued at $65.5m – probable the largest slice of existent estate always to live financed this way. Once the other iii deals are finalized, ICP volition live auctioning off shares inwards those assets every bit well. The 4 assets volition live sold via a Dutch auction in addition to bids volition live accepted inwards the top 50 cryptocurrencies.
- Bitcoin lights initiatory off Green Monthly Candle: in 8 months – so perhaps accumulation has begun. A recent poll revealed that a bulk of Crypto investors consider Bitcoin prices at $100,000 to millions long-term. Y-Combinator’s president thinks crypto could facilitate universal basic income.
Last Week (we learned):
So let's review for a second. The marketplace seat does NOT belong at this level. Money has been flowing OUT of the market. Earnings receive got been disappointing at best. But every bit you lot know, it’s all nigh buy-backs, depression involvement rates, in addition to a FED that’s beholden to the market. A logical mind would advise that the quadruple top at 2800 volition withdraw hold every bit resistance in addition to we'll live heading lower. But that's logic talking, non fraud in addition to manipulation. And if you lot add together fraud in addition to manipulation dorsum into the equation, you’ll consider that the most confounding affair the marketplace seat could exercise at this betoken is to suspension thru the 2800 to 2820 resistance storey in addition to travel on higher, suck inwards to a greater extent than people, in addition to THEN coil over. Factually:
- Economic information is ambiguous at best. Auto in addition to abode sales are collapsing – piece Cathay (FXI) is beingness flooded alongside liquidity past times their ain government,
- Q1 gross domestic product estimates are collapsing alongside the Atlanta FED maxim 0.3%,
- 90% of the corporate taxation cuts went into stock buybacks, dividends in addition to M&A – NOT jobs or growth,
- 2018’s finally revenue numbers showed an increase of 2.69% - which was barely higher than 2017’s 2.59% - BEFORE taxation cuts,
- Nasdaq (QQQ) extended its longest positive daily winning streak since 1999,
- Interest Rates are get-go to climb higher (10-year jumping to 2.75%) – every bit bonds (TLT) receive got started to sell off.
- Earnings travel on to deteriorate. I wonder if this volition displace a slow-down inwards corporate buybacks?
- There is a compression inwards volatility (VIX), every bit the buying of out-of-the-money CALLs inwards the VIX monthly Apr options receive got sky-rocketed. Traders were buying massive amounts of: $20, $25, $30, $35 in addition to $45 options – expecting the upcoming selloff. An cheap strategy for an expected selloff would be:
o Sell the Apr 17, - $13.50 / +$12 Put Credit Spread,
o Buy the Apr 17, $19 Call – for a internet of $0.05 DB
- The next lines of resistance / back upwards inwards the SPX even so withdraw hold true:
o 2,911, 2,842, 2,811, 2,731, 2,682, 2,626, in addition to 2,575
- We are at the upper cease of the ‘volatility box’ this is from 262 to 282 on the SPY. Therefore, merchandise alongside caution.
Weed in addition to BioTech:
Five cannabis stocks got a thumbs-up from Jefferies finally week, every bit the theatre started coverage of Canadian marijuana producers. Among their purchase ratings were:
- **Aurora Cannabis (ACB) – target $9.11,
- Organic Dutchman (TGOD.Canada),
- **CannTrust Holdings (CTST),
- OrganiGram Holdings (OGI.Canada), and
- Flowr (FLWR.Canada).
They believe the footing marketplace seat for legal weed volition arrive at $30B by 2022, in addition to $50B past times 2029. Jefferies argues that "Weed is NOT but some other agricultural commoditywhose cost volition drib from oversupply.” They believe that premium pot won't travel commoditized, in addition to doesn't consider a cannabis glut occurring until mid-2021 at the earliest. They write: "If you lot tin can deliver a top lineament experience, you lot volition live able to accuse a premium." While they looked only at companies that sell weed inwards countries where it is nationally legal, they did annotation that whatsoever cannabis fellowship that aspires to large-cap condition volition demand to receive got a strong seat inwards the U.S. – which is the world's biggest cannabis market. Sales of the lately legalized hemp, a source of the non-psychoactive ingredient cannabidiol (CBD) volition aid elevator the U.S. sales chance inwards a higher identify $32B in 2022.
Jeffries also believe that Canopy Growth (CGC) is well-placed to dominate the footing cannabis marketplace seat along alongside their ‘buy-rated’ Aurora. Unfortunately, Canopy’s $15B valuation leads them to a Hold rating. Jeffries’ other Hold is Emerald Health Therapeutics (EMH) - a little vendor of medical cannabis that relies on partnerships for its supply. The Cronos Group (CRON) grabbed headlines when tobacco giant Altria took a $1.8B stake inwards the Canadian pot producer, but at $20,60/share their stock looks expensive – peculiarly when compared to Aurora. Hexo is also over-priced on the listing fifty-fifty alongside their most recent collaboration alongside Molson Coors Brewing (TAP). One of the best-known cannabis names absent from their novel coverage is Tilray (TLRY). Tilray (to Jefferies) looks expensive, but they are quick to betoken out that it’s hard to value these companies when demand is so far out-stripping supply. They believe that valuations volition eventually live driven to a greater extent than past times fiscal functioning in addition to delivery, in addition to are also looking for less volatility going forward.
I (on the other hand) similar two of their five names (Aurora in addition to CannTrust Holdings), in addition to believe that volatility inwards a globally under-supplied marketplace seat is really much hither to stay.
Next Week:
2,800 was a sticking betoken iii times since October, in addition to is even so beingness something of a thorn inwards the bull's side. This calendar week nosotros had iii huge events taking place, in addition to the marketplace seat looked for a piece similar it was finally going to but coil over. It didn't. It wasn't but the President’s trip to Vietnam in addition to coming together alongside Kim Jong. It wasn't but Jerome Powell’s talking to Congress. It was both of those, in addition to the 7-hour questioning of Michael Cohen. The interrogation on everyone's heed is the same: “Will the marketplace seat powerfulness through this 2,800 – 2,820 storey in addition to travel laid on the all-time highs, or is it going to run out of steam correct here?” It's a genuinely tough interrogation to answer. I'm on tape maxim that the marketplace seat has NO job concern going higher. P/E's are stretched, in addition to the technical indicators are overbought. Logic dictates that at that spot is no ground to punch through 2,800. But the marketplace seat doesn't run on logic whatsoever more. It runs on Fed money, manipulation, depression involvement rates in addition to purchase backs. I facial expression at the multiple failed attempts this calendar week in addition to start to think: “hey, perhaps they can’t or won’t acquire through this.” But in addition to so I consider actions where they had every chance to sell us off hard – but didn’t in addition to think: “someone isn’t willing to give this marketplace seat upwards – yet.”
I’m thinking that they punch us through this resistance level. That volition displace all of the shorts to cover, in addition to volition calorie-free a burn nether the algo-bots to purchase stocks. We volition acquire that 1 finally large spike higher, in addition to THEN they volition draw the rug. The marketplace seat would construct all of that finally infinitesimal money that volition come upwards rushing inwards on the breakout. It would live a classic marketplace seat action. They would caput faux everyone into thinking that this marketplace seat volition travel on for some other large leg higher, only to yank the carpet out from under. Maybe it coincides with a Cathay deal. That doesn't hateful nosotros acquire through it correct now. We’re at 2,804, but nosotros could stall hither in addition to retrace a piddling flake earlier the adjacent circular of hyped upwards intelligence headlines. On Oct. 17th nosotros ran out of gas at 2,816. After a really deep pullback, nosotros ran dorsum upwards in addition to striking 2,815 on Nov 7th. Then some other sudden pulldown, in addition to run dorsum upwards ending at 2,800 on Dec. 3. Then nosotros got the huge plunge downward to 2,350.
This coming week, I call upwards they run the SPX upwards every bit high every bit 2,842 earlier falling backward. This would correspond to the $33 expected displace inwards the SPX past times adjacent Friday. In terms of the SPY, nosotros should displace into the 285 storey earlier reverting dorsum downward to 265. I would non travel long anything until nosotros closed over the 2815 storey inwards the SPX for two consecutive days. That would in all probability jump-start the algo-bots into buying. We should know within a twain of days. If I'm correct nosotros volition grind higher, shorts volition cover, in addition to nosotros volition receive got 1 finally major boom higher. If I'm wrong, we’ll fade backward nether 2800 for some other few days in addition to and so finally coil over.
Tips:
Top Equity Recommendations:
HODL’s:
- Aurora (ACB = $7.34 / inwards @ $3.57) – & covered write,
- Canntrust Holdings (CNTTF = $9.22 / inwards @ $3.12),
- Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $47.05 / inwards @ 22.17),
- HEXO (HEXO = $5.67 / inwards @ $5.12),
- Nova Vax (NVAX = $0.71 / inwards @ $1.59)
Crypto:
- Bitcoin (BTC = $3,850)
- Ethereum (ETH = 133.00)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = 131.00)
Options:
- EWZ (42.35): Buy Mar 8, +44 / -44.5 / +45.5, Call B-Fly for $0.02 DB,
- GDXJ (31.55): Buy Mar 8, +33 / -33.5 / +34, Call B-Fly for $0.05 DB,
- PFE (43.5): Buy Mar 15, +44 / -44.5 / +45, Call B-Fly for $0.05 DB,
- PYPL (98.8): Buy Mar 8, +98 / -99 / +101, Call B-Fly for $0.05 CR,
- SPX (2804): Buy Mar 8, +2825 / -2835 / +2845, Call B-Fly for $0.95 DB,
- SPX (2804): Buy Mar 8, +2760 / -2755 / +2750, Put B-Fly for $0.15 DB,
- SPY (280.7): Buy Mar 8, +283 / -284 / +285, Call B-Fly for $0.07 DB
Thoughts:
- In my search for high implied volatility products, 1 I’ve never traded popped upwards on my list. The flavorfully named Parsley Energy (PE) – has 55% implied volatility in addition to 4-star liquidity. What’s non to love nigh it? It’s a Texas crude in addition to gas exploration fellowship focused on the Permian Basin that missed on earnings finally calendar week but rallied despite the numbers. So much for fundamentals. But it sold off inwards the past times twain of days to maintain it from breaking out of its arrive at to the upside. On the other hand, if crude prices stabilize – you lot powerfulness desire to consider a bullish strategy inwards PE. If you lot call upwards that PE powerfulness non drib much more, curt $17.5 PUT inwards the Apr monthly expiration is a bullish strategy that has a 90% probability of making 50% of its max turn a profit earlier it expires.
Follow me on StockTwits.com to acquire my daily thoughts in addition to trades – my handgrip is: taylorpamm.
Please live prophylactic out there!
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Until adjacent calendar week – live safe.
R.F. Culbertson
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