This Week inwards Barrons: 7-28-2019:
Causation vs Correlation:
Causation indicates that i lawsuit is the direct outcome of some other i occurring. Correlation is the powerfulness to predict i lawsuit happening based upon the occurrence of a dissimilar one. The classic example is that smoking is correlated amongst alcoholism, but sure doesn't exertion alcoholism. In Rocky’s case, cutting his optic volition exertion fluid to drain from it together with allow him to see, but cutting involvement rates may or may non exertion a lethargic economic scheme to wake up. Businesses (especially entrepreneurial ones) human face for cause andeffect solutions all the time. In fact, it’s becoming clear that our attention-seeking media drive our civilization to a greater extent than than they written report on it. We go along to human face for what is causing our: loss of civility, ascent of trolling together with bullying, together with increased divisive behavior. All the while, reality TV continues to grow.
Here’s the dilemma: imagine ii classrooms – each filled amongst 2nd graders. In the outset classroom, the instructor shines a spotlight on the bullies, the troublemakers, together with the fighters – going hence far every bit to adjust all the chairs hence that the students are watching them together with cheering them on all day. In the 2nd classroom, the instructor establishes standards, acts every bit a damper on selfish outliers, together with celebrates the generous together with productive kids inwards the classroom. Which classroom would yous watch? In which classroom, would yous enroll your child?
Unfortunately, we’re non inwards uncomplicated schoolhouse anymore, together with the media isn’t our instructor or fifty-fifty our friend. The attending we’re paying to electronic channels is consuming to a greater extent than of our twenty-four lx minutes catamenia than Miss Silverman’s 2ndgrade class. That attending is becoming corrosive to us together with all about us. The producers of reality TV know this, together with seek out to a greater extent than of it. It’s their chore to amp-up the reality exhibit that is our culture, but it’s non our chore to purchase into it. Our outset mensuration is to halt taking the bait. Our 2nd mensuration is to say, “follow me” together with motion inwards a dissimilar direction.
Adapting this to business, direct marketers are looking for ‘reach’. To gain ‘reach’, you demand to start little (not large every bit many would remove hold yous believe). Small audiences are your friend. Small audiences are specific, together with specifics increment your percentage. You’re e'er looking for ‘early adopters’ and ‘flag wavers’. You’re looking for those people that are saying: ‘follow me’ because they care. As brands acquire larger, they tend to forget what it means ‘to care’. The solely way to truly tending is to give caring human beings the powerfulness together with authorisation to payoff diverse activities. Caring tin accept many forms including: cost reductions, personal interactions, electronic posts, and/or surveys.
I can’t tell yous the number of surveys I’ve taken that were focused on trying to alter a brand’s positioning and/or direction. The job amongst these types of ‘open access’ (online) surveys is that they’re inaccurate yesteryear design. The grouping that is taking the fourth dimension to reply the survey – is oft a really dissimilar grouping than your client base. A practiced survey is designed to inquire questions of a representative group, together with and hence extend those answers across a larger category. The right representational grouping is critical, but no less critical than the way yous phrase your questions. Asking someone a enquiry on a theme tin alter the way they experience almost that theme (push poll). For representative asking: “Did yous know that Bob was indicted in conclusion year?”– is an influencing disceptation disguised every bit a survey question. Factually, fifty-fifty quest a enquiry almost someone’s client satisfaction – increases client satisfaction across that brand.
The unmarried best way to figure out how people experience almost your production is NOT to remove hold them accept a focus-group survey. But rather, to spotter their actions using a mutual trigger – across a little representative sample. Watch what they DO – when given the pick to do ‘this or that’. That is the best way to figure out whether your production is Causing a alter – or simply Correlatedwith a much larger behavior.
The Market: and a very different investment strategygoing forward.
TheBESTportfolio positioning over the yesteryear decade would remove hold been to go 98% inwards cash, together with 2% inwards Bitcoin (BTC). It would remove hold produced a 20+% annual return, amongst virtually 0 downside remove chances (see below). Going forward, I’d recommend a 95% cash / 5% BTC split.
Courtesy of AP (Pomp): We are living inwards radical times. The stock marketplace has reached tape highs, debt levels are inwards the stratosphere, together with investment professionals desire everyone to believe that the political party tin go on forever. The reality of overheated markets is that hereafter returns on those assets volition go steadily declining. For example: the S&P from 1997 to 1999 (3 years leading upward to the Dot Com bust) – the annual returns were 31%, 26%, together with 19% respectively. The functioning was together with hence followed yesteryear losses of 10%, 13%, together with 23% from 2000 to 2002. If the economical information isn’t enough, nosotros are currently seeing: founders accept hundreds of millions of dollars off the table, unprofitable companies go public, together with fund managers state that this marketplace feels similar an “out of trunk experience”. The marketplace is drunk, together with no i wants the political party to end.
Unfortunately Ms. Market doesn’t care. Vanguard together with others are projecting 10-year annualized returns of 2 to 4% in U.S. equities together with 0.5 to 2.5% inwards U.S. bonds. My enquiry is: “Is the payoff of a 2% upside for a decade truly worth the remove chances of belongings heavily weighted equity together with bond bags when the marketplace draws downwards 20 to 50% inwards an economical downturn?” Market highs are e'er accompanied yesteryear dull growth, increased global instability, together with key banks who remove hold go addicted to depression involvement rates together with quantitative easing. But what should the average investor do? I won’t bore yous amongst the measure portfolio mumbo-jumbo, but rather suggest a radical portfolio that could aid yous conditions the upcoming storm. Fair warning, this volition NOT include having large exposure to overvalued markets. So rather than continuing to potable the Kool-Aid – hither is a 2-step suggestion:
- Step #1 = Divest all assets into a 100% cash position. This won’t go accomplished overnight. Over the adjacent six months, the destination would go to acquire every bit unopen to an all-cash seat every bit possible.
- Step #2 = Purchase Bitcoin amongst 5% of your available cash. This decentralized digital currency has been the best performing property for the yesteryear decade. As much every bit nosotros say: “past functioning doesn’t betoken hereafter results”– it does. Bitcoin is ready to do really good going forrard every bit involvement rates are lowered together with to a greater extent than fiat currencies are printed from sparse air. Bitcoin continues to go a non-correlated asset, together with fifty-fifty an inversely correlated i at times – which makes it the perfect property to add together to a cash-heavy portfolio.
The risk/reward trade-off of 95% cash together with 5% Bitcoin is incredible. The remove chances is quite defined – worst representative yous lose 5%. While no i wants to lose money, a 5% loss would go a smaller drawdown than the S&P 500 had in conclusion twelvemonth (-6.24%). Secondly, the upside for Bitcoin is quite asymmetric. This agency that the property volition either go to the satelite inwards damage of value, or go apartment to worthless. This binary outcome, combined amongst the non-correlated nature of Bitcoin, gives yous a great hedge against any/all economical chaos.
When extended over the yesteryear 10 years, a 98% cash, 2% Bitcoin portfolio would remove hold delivered to a greater extent than or less 20% annualized returns amongst minimal downside risk. This novel portfolio, caps your downside remove chances at 5% together with exposes your upside to returns inwards the 20% range. There aren’t many other portfolio constructions that make this outcome.
With the electrical flow economy, the warning bells are ringing loudly – from inverted yield curves to greedy behavior. Virtually everyone I verbalize to thinks that they volition remove hold the dependent to halt drinking the Kool-Aid together with observe a chair when the music stops. But in that location are non plenty chairs, together with dollar-cost-averaging volition non go inwards a protracted downturn.
The inwards a higher house portfolio likewise gives yous perfect positioning to accept payoff of ‘blood inwards the streets’. By going to 95% cash today, a disciplined investor volition remove hold maximum dry out pulverisation available when the economical downturn occurs. As Warren Buffett hence eloquently says, “Be fearful when others are greedy, together with greedy when others are fearful.” The greed nosotros are currently seeing is unsustainable. This Bitcoin / Cash portfolio is i that volition navigate the adjacent economical downturn quite nicely. And whether nosotros similar it or not, Ms. Market is a ruthless justice who shows no mercy.
Info Bits:
- Tinder is making a move: Tinder is finding a way about the 30% app shop revenue enhancement that Google charges. Currently, to acquire advanced Tinder features – yous demand to purchase "Tinder Gold" inwards the Google App shop together with Google (like Apple) takes 30%. That’s a hefty toll, hence Tinder’s encouraging its users to go about the app shop together with pay Tinder directly. Look out Google – it could go petroleum sledding ahead.
- Hakuna matata: Disney entertained itself in conclusion calendar week amongst ii fresh records: The Lion King's $185M haul inwards North America was the best opening weekend for a Disney remake, and Avengers:Endgame finally passed Avatar as the top grossing moving-picture exhibit ever at $2.8B tickets sold. With another Star Wars coming, Disney's on mensuration to earn $9B at the box component this twelvemonth (another record).
- Big banks are the window to your wallet's soul. Citi credit card spending jumped 8% in conclusion quarter, piece JP Morgan cards popped 11%. Goldman Sachs wants inwards on that activity hence badly that it has invested $1.3B inwards a novel credit card partnership amongst Apple. In a reason of volatile markets, involvement charge per unit of measurement uncertainty, together with merchandise wars – your personal savings, checking, together with credit accounts are a banks' security blanket.
- American Runs on Beyond Meat: Starting amongst Manhattan, Dunkin Donuts volition at nowadays go serving Beyond Meats sausages on their breakfast sandwiches. They are the outset java chain to add together beyond meat to their menu. Beyond Meat (BYND) is at nowadays upward over 200% since its May IPO. It reports earnings on Mon – are yous a buyer or a seller?
- Equifax: agreed to pay upward to $700m over a 2017 information breach that affected nearly 150m people inwards the US. It was i of the largest data breaches inwards history. If you're i of the people who had to do impairment command afterwards your Social Security or credit card numbers were exposed, yous could shortly claim upward to $20k.
- Tesla – Baby Bye Bye: J.B. Straubel (Tesla’s CTO together with co-founder) announced in conclusion calendar week that he was leaving. That’s 106 Tesla execs that remove hold left inwards the yesteryear year. On a dissimilar note, Tesla said that it needs to do a ameliorate chore education its customers how to TURN ON their cars. It seems that the cars tin drive themselves but WE remove hold to figure out the rest.
- It’s Barbie’s reason together with we’re yet exactly livin’ inwards it: as Mattel reported that Barbie together with Hot Wheels sales increased dramatically in conclusion quarter.
- Game, Set – Match: This weekend the Fortnite World Cup is taking over the Arthur Ashe lawn tennis stadium. Drivers, strap on your headsets.
- A nice, hot bath: A recent study showed that a dainty hot bathroom a few hours before bedtime volition improve your sleep. My brief experience says that a nice hot bathroom anytime volition improve exactly almost anything.
- Factually:
o Manufacturers are shedding workers at the fastest charge per unit of measurement since 2009,
o Service sector chore creation is downwards to its lowest flat since Apr 2017,
o New abode sales Fall every bit reduced mortgage rates neglect to convey buyers back,
o U.S. Manufacturing PMI slumped to a novel 10-year low,
o The latest Richmond FED reading came inwards at a MINUS 12 (contracting),
o Facebook volition pay a tape $5B fine to the FTC,
o Caterpillar sales together with earnings completely missy the grade – again,
o Boeing’s revenue missed yesteryear over $5B – resulting inwards a shocking cash john together with quarterly loss, and
o The latest AT&T Q2 wireless & video subscriber losses go yesteryear estimates.
Crypto-Bytes:
- Tron’s CEO shows his truthful colors: Justin Lord's Day (Tron’s CEO) couldn’t attend his ballyhooed dejeuner amongst finance titan Warren Buffett on Th due to kidney stones, he said. Of class that didn’t halt him from mingling amongst influencers at a Tron-organized political party on that same Th nighttime inwards San Francisco. The appearance comes a twenty-four lx minutes catamenia afterwards Lord's Day penned an apology to the public, media together with regulators for “over-marketing” the Buffett lunch. A dejeuner amongst Warren Buffett was his prize for winning a charity auction where he bid $4.6m for the privilege. It doesn’t surprise me inwards the to the lowest degree that other (more controversial) issues are existence touted every bit the root causeof Mr. Sun’s ‘erratic’ behavior.
- Factually:
o Coinbase added 5m users in yesteryear 10 months – bulls returning?
o Robinhood raised $323m inwards a funding round led yesteryear DST global.
o Utah is going to offering Blockchain a voting app inwards their municipal elections.
o Fidelity’s Crypto arm has officially applied to operate inwards N.Y. every bit a trust.
o Bulgaria’s Bitcoin holdings surpassed their gilded reserves.
o 21% of Bitcoin hasn’t changed ownership for 5 years – signifying a monumental provide shock.
Last Week: It’s all almost the Central Banksters together with Corporate Buybacks.
Our ain talking heads are telling us that there’s no recession inwards sight – yeah the latest Richmond FED reading came inwards at a MINUS 12. That's every bit large a missy every bit you'll ever see. So, all this verbalize almost the economic scheme existence practiced – is exactly that – talk. Until they acquire their state of war (or whatever they’re going to blame the meltdown on) we're going to go along to consider this crap. The talking heads don't tending that manufacturing is taking a dump. All they tending almost is tardily money, pushing the marketplace fifty-fifty higher.
Last week Boeing was something for the tape books. Expectations were for a turn a profit of $2 a share, but instead they LOST over $5 a share. The grounding of the MAX bird has rippled through the entire company, together with it's ugly.
Last week Boeing was something for the tape books. Expectations were for a turn a profit of $2 a share, but instead they LOST over $5 a share. The grounding of the MAX bird has rippled through the entire company, together with it's ugly.
Honestly, the outset leg of my triple play computer program did non materialize. I had thought that Draghi & the ECB would cutting rates, our FED would cutting rates, together with they would leak practiced intelligence from the China merchandise talks – all sending the marketplace soaring on Wed of this week. Well, Draghi lay a pivot inwards the ECB charge per unit of measurement cutting balloon, together with at i dot on Th nosotros were downwards over 200 DOW points. However, Friday, on the heels of practiced earnings from Google, McDonalds together with others – they poured on the points together with nosotros striking all fourth dimension novel highs again. I’m yet looking forrard to practiced intelligence coming out of China, together with our ain FED heads telling us a ‘dovish’ story.
Factually, without buybacks, S&P earnings are DECLINING at 6% year-over-year. And fifty-fifty amongst buybacks, earnings are yet DECLINING 3.7%. Without buybacks, QE, null rates, together with our Central Banksters buying stocks – we’d go inwards a spiral lower. But, all that gets washed away amongst the stroke of a digital pen because gratis money rules.
Weed: Remember: “Buy when there’s Blood inwards the Streets.” The actions of CannTrust (CTST) remove hold successfully lay ‘blood inwards the street’ – together with earnings are right about the corner.
- CannTrust(an Ontario-based licensed producer) fired its principal executive, Peter Aceto, "with cause"amid an ongoing scandal involving unlicensed cannabis tillage that has enveloped the marijuana industry. The companionship likewise demanded, together with received, the resignation of its long-time chairman, Eric Paul. Earlier this month, CannTrust's greenhouse facility inwards Pelham, Ontario, received a "noncompliant"rating afterwards a whistleblower alerted Canada's regulator to 5 unlicensed tillage rooms the companionship had been operating since tardily 2018. That forced the companionship to halt all sales pending farther investigation.
- Factually:
o Canada announced that cannabis sales are upward 14.8% month-over-month.
o The Senate Banking Committee volition convene for a hearing on the SAFE Act on July 23. If passed it would opened upward up banking regulations considerably for cannabis related activity.
o In a tweet yesteryear the FDA Deputy Commissioner Amy Abernethy, she said the agency is expediting its efforts to prepare rules for CBD – together with plans to number a progress written report inwards the coming months.
o Ohio House of Representatives approved a hemp mouth that would allow farmers to flora the crop together with permit stores to sell hemp-derived CBD.
o In the outset one-half of 2019, Deutschland imported nearly 2,500 kg of medical cannabis blossom for chemist's shop dispensing, together with is on mensuration to to a greater extent than than double that for the 2ndconsecutive year.
o Curaleaf (CURA) entered into a definitive understanding to acquire Grassroots for $875m.
o FIRE announced an understanding to acquire Truverra for C$20m.
o Aurora (ACB) won all 3 bidding lots to provide 400 kg of medical cannabis to Italia over the adjacent 2 years.
o ROMJ received organic certification for its 25,000 square-foot greenhouse facility inwards Delta, British Columbia.
Next Week: FED coming together together with China Trade Talks – nosotros tin nosotros ringlet the dice? Remember, the ECB surprised yesteryear staying pat – for the fourth dimension being.
This coming calendar week we’ll observe out what our FED is going to do amongst involvement rates. What nosotros know is that they’re going to cutting them, but nosotros don’t know yesteryear how much. Secondly, I ‘think’ they volition verbalize almost cutting QT (Quantitative Tightening) before than expected – potentially now. If they cutting rates yesteryear 50 reason points, together with trace forrard the ending of QT – this marketplace volition SOAR higher. I'm yet siding amongst the thought they do a 25 reason dot cut, because they don’t remove hold a whole lot of room to go lower together with the European Union held steady on their ain rates.
On Fri a grouping is traveling to China for merchandise talks. The trip ends adjacent Wed – the same twenty-four lx minutes catamenia every bit the FED announcement. So the enquiry becomes, what IF nosotros acquire a merchandise deal, a charge per unit of measurement cut, together with pulling forrard of QT? I remove hold to cry upward that the marketplace would remove hold a brusque term surge that could accept your breath away. It's a stretch to cry upward we'll acquire these, every bit the China "deal" in all likelihood won't evolve. But nosotros could yet acquire ii out of 3 together with that should go plenty to powerfulness us higher.
Remember that the MARKET is really of import to the global economy. There's hence much tied to the value of stocks right at nowadays – fifty-fifty the President has said that a stable marketplace is a thing of national security. But the S&P together with Nasdaq are at all-time highs. Sentiment is yet rather skeptical. Consumer confidence is high – but I would debate inwards an era of smartphones it’s easier to maintain consumer confidence high. Interest rates are low, unemployment is low, together with banking concern stocks are rallying (despite the depression rates). Most of the inwards a higher house are due to corporate stock buybacks that:
- Give Wall Street a valuation story to sell,
- Give corporate administration the powerfulness to give stock-based compensation,
- Give the White House together with politicians a way to acquire re-elected,
- Give The FED a grateful together with thankful ‘Wall Street’ together with White House, together with they
- Give J.Q. Public the powerfulness to remove hold upward a card that says “Yeah, capitalism.”
The marketplace is non necessarily telling us to sell stocks right now, but it is pointing out the flaws inwards the system. Currently EVERY maturity of Swiss Government bonds are existence sold amongst a negative yield. That agency that the Swiss Government tin borrow money for 50 years together with go paid to do so. The nautical chart below of Beyond Meat together with Conagra should remind us that we’re on borrowed time.
The markets remove hold something for everyone. I’m looking for a 25 reason dot cutting on Wednesday, something almost ending Quantitative Tightening a fleck sooner than scheduled, together with a ‘rough outline’ of a China deal. That should maintain us moving higher. If whatever or all of these elements would disappoint, I could consider a 1,000 DOW drib inwards a day. That’s exactly how ‘manic together with manipulated’ this marketplace has become. It’s no wonder that Robinhood has a $7.6B valuation, together with CNBC yet has an audience.
Tips:
Top Equity Recommendations:
HODL’s:
- Aurora (ACB = $6.41 / inwards @ $3.07) – ACB has affirmed profitability for this quarter – hence this should trammel post-earnings,
- Canntrust Holdings (CTST = $2.28 / inwards @ $3.12) – CEO together with Pres. existence fired should lay a bottom inwards the stock – assuming earnings are half-way decent.
- Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $34.82 / inwards @ $22.17),
- GBTC (GBTC = $12.49 / inwards @ $10.01),
- Hexo (HEXO = $3.99 / inwards @ $6.37),
Crypto:
- Bitcoin (BTC = $9,500)
- Ethereum (ETH = $210)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $305)
Options:
- RIOT ($1.97):
o Bot January 17, Sold $3 Call / Sold $3 Put / Bot $4 Call for $1.85 CR
o Bot January 17, Sold $2 Call / Sold $2 Put / Bot $3 Call for $1.45 CR
o (can solely lose money if RIOT falls below $1).
- TLT (131.47) … Back Ratio Spread:
o Sold (1) October 18, $131 Put / Bot (2) October 18, $128 Puts for $0.07 CR
o (profitable when TLT declines).
Thoughts:
- Russell Small Cap Index (IWM = $157.20) recently rallied to essay to maintain upward amongst the large cap ETFs. SPY, QQQ together with DIE. Most little caps ready their money inwards the U.S., piece the bigger caps tend to remove hold to a greater extent than overseas exposure. And it’s truly a handful of mega-cap stocks that are dragging the S&P upward together with downwards – piece the residuum are exactly plodding along. IWM hasn’t been able to sustain these sudden rallies, together with piece yesteryear is non prologue, it powerfulness easily sink dorsum downwards afterwards its Big Cap Challenge. If you’re a contrarian trader thinking that IWM powerfulness drop, the long Put vertical that’s brusque the $156 Put together with long the $159 Put inwards the September expiration is a bearish strategy that has a 63% probability of making 50% of its max turn a profit before expiring.
- Disney (DIS = $144.67) You’d cry upward that amongst the highest-grossing moving-picture exhibit of all fourth dimension (Avengers : Endgame), Disney would go soaring. Instead, it’s been underperforming the wide equity indices similar SPY together with DIA over the yesteryear duad of weeks. DIS dominates the box component together with is becoming a threat inwards the streaming occupation concern thank yous to Hulu. Disney’s earnings are coming upward on Aug 6. Disney’s 36% implied volatility rank is depression plenty to job debit spreads for speculative strategies. If yous cry upward Disney powerfulness pick out remove hold of upward amongst the residuum of the marketplace together with are bullish on it, the long Call vertical that’s long the $140 Call together with brusque the $142 Call inwards the Aug expiration is a bullish strategy that has a 62% probability of making 50% of its max turn a profit before expiring.
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Please go security out there!
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