Financial Weekz Flush This Calendar Week Inwards Barrons: 11.17.2019:

This Week inwards Barrons: 11-17-2019:






Thoughts:

   Learning requires understanding.  Rote memorization is non learning or understanding.  Some things (like alphabetical order) tin only live memorized.  On the other hand, memorizing anything that you’ll demand to construct upon, modify, or improve is foolish.  You demand to piece of work at agreement it instead.  It’s the fourth dimension required for agreement that oftentimes gets inwards the agency of the entrepreneur.  An entrepreneur’s survival instincts tell them to concentrate on whatever is on phase inwards front end of them, as well as and thus to displace on to the adjacent particular on the urgency chain.  But unfortunately, Copernicus was right – the footing doesn’t revolve exactly about the entrepreneur.  In fact, most of the fourth dimension the footing moves on irrespective of whatsoever of the entrepreneurs living inwards it.  It’s the procedure of learning as well as agreement that separates successful entrepreneurs from the rest.
   Per MJP, it’s the entrepreneurs might to computer program prior to implementation that is some other differentiator.  Strategize – as well as thus computer program – as well as thus marketplace – as well as thus sell – as well as thus communicate using tactics as well as actions.  That’s the process.  Within each of these elements, figure out who are your allies – the ones that volition assist you lot opened upwards doors, as well as won’t create it the agency of execution.  Then line upwards your accomplices – the ones that volition risk, sacrifice, as well as set themselves out at that topographic point on the claw for you.  Learn how to tell your story – a story that’s all most the listener (not you).  Make it a story that’s unforgettable, that makes things better, as well as that people volition openly share.  The forever open-ended enquiry is: TIMING.  When is the right fourth dimension to: build, heighten capital, launch as well as exit?
   One dandy vox on startups is Eric Feng – old partner at Kleiner Perkins.  Eric believes that the of import structural wages of a startup is that it controls “all of the above”.  A startup controls the team, the timing as well as the technology.  They fifty-fifty command what they think they’re worth.  A startup’s goals are all focused exactly about lead a opportunity removal – as well as those risks to a greater extent than oftentimes than non autumn into half dozen buckets:
-       #1  Team Risk:   Can the founder(s) recruit a squad to send out their vision for the company?  Prospects volition oftentimes say: “I don’t lead hold conviction inwards your team.”  To which you lot respond:  "If you lot exactly desire us to give-up the ghost fast – I’ll give-up the ghost it alone.  But if you lot desire us to give-up the ghost far – nosotros must give-up the ghost together."
-       #2  Implementation Risk:   Can the squad construct the production needed to fulfill the society vision?  Knowing "Never to allow perfect stand upwards inwards the agency of good."
-       #3  Market Risk:   When the production gets built, volition anyone usage it?  I’ve forever heard: "This marketplace needs to gain momentum earlier I tin acquire excited.”  And as well as thus I respond: "I never lead hold a NO, from someone who can’t give me a YES.”
-       #4  Monetization Risk:   Would the people who desire to usage the production – pay for the product?  From investors I oftentimes hear: “I don’t similar your product.”  And here’s where it gets dicey: "Fortunately, you’re non my customer.  But hither is our client list."
-       #5  Scale Risk:   When people are using as well as paying for the product, what volition maintain you lot from doubling / tripling the number of customers you lot serve?  There is ever a ‘different gear’, and “The greatest lead a opportunity at this indicate is doing nothing.”
-       #6  Profitability Risk:   Finally, in ane lawsuit you lot lead hold ‘real’ revenue, tin you lot plough that into profits that tin sustain the company?  Profitability is non rocket scientific discipline thus remember: “Never give-up the ghost anywhere for the showtime time.”

   The to a higher identify procedure is designed to prevent Twinkies from becoming a breakfast cereal, along alongside other entrepreneurial nightmares such as: pay toilets, spray on hair, as well as novel Coke.  Here’s to those entrepreneurs:
“Here’s to the crazy ones - the misfits, the rebels, as well as the troublemakers.
The circular pegs inwards the foursquare holes, as well as the ones who consider things differently.
They’re non fond of rules, as well as they lead hold no abide by for the condition quo.
You tin quote them, disagree alongside them, glorify or vilify them.
But the only thing you lot can’t do … is ignore them.
Because they alter things!  They force the human race forward.
And patch some may consider them equally the crazy ones … others consider genius.
Because the people who are crazy plenty to think that they tin alter the world…
Are the ones who truly do”… Steve Jobs (1997)    [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keCwRdbwNQY]



The Market:  

 

   I’m champaign missing something.  President Trump may live impeached.  Hong Kong is rioting.  Venice is drowning, as well as Taylor Swift can't fifty-fifty sing her ain songs.  Yet, every major index is hitting all-time highs.  Hong Kong fifty-fifty confirmed that they are inwards a recession as their economic scheme shrunk past times 3.2% lastly quarter – the 2nddeclining quarter inwards a row.  All this patch almost 80,000 retired populace employees inwards California are drawing pensions inwards excess of $100,000 per year.  Per SF, California has hundreds of billions of dollars inwards unfunded pension debt, which explains their precipitous surge inwards taxation increment proposals.  On the other spectrum, when the WeWork IPO went belly up, its principal investor (the SoftBank Group) lost a staggering $4.5B.  WeWork’s spectacular debacle is widely viewed equally today’s version of irrational exuberance that allows property prices to live pumped upwards without exactly cause.  It was fascinating to consider Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank) acknowledge he made a ‘mistake’ alongside WeWork, but his inflated, sociopathic ego prohibited him from “making whatsoever strategic changes” to his investment philosophy. 
   The lessons from WeWork are continuing to sink it – peculiarly across such verticals equally cannabis, the chip sector, as well as over-hyped IPOs.  Lyft’s CEO Logan Green acknowledged
 that populace marketplace sentiment had turned against companies that were spending heavily inwards pursuit of high growth: "There has been a major shift from investors valuing growth toward those valuing fundamentals. It has had pronounced deport upon on our business.”  Also, unit of measurement economic science are starting to affair to a greater extent than than optics.  AirBnB CEO, Brian Chesky pointed out that ane of the lessons from WeWork is that tech companies do non incur that much additional overhead when scaling up.  However, AirBnB as well as WeWork (although using engineering for operations), lead hold their marrow values inwards commercial existent estate – a non-scalable, low-margin business.  
   Startups volition lead hold to give-up the ghost dorsum to basics to win.  We’ve reached an inflection indicate where people are putting downwards their ‘magic wands’ as well as picking upwards their pencils, axes, picks ‘n shovels – trying to acquire s**t done.  However, the historic menstruum of the highly-functioning sociopath (like Masayoshi Son) volition never alter on a unmarried indicate of failure similar WeWork.  It’s going to convey a ane G k points of rejection as well as ridicule, but from the California pension crisis to WeWork – alter is inwards the air.

 

 

Info Bits:




-       “Back to the Future…”   Motorola is returning to yester-year with their novel Razr – a foldable android smartphone.  One reviewer said: “Hanging upwards on people is fun again!”  It’s available for $1,500 inwards Jan 2020.  But how much is ane of those Star Trek hang-ups worth to ya?

-       “You’re Fired:”   172 CEO’s were fired inwards the calendar month of Oct – breaking a  previous 2008 record.  Exits were driven past times turn a profit misses, retirement, as well as misconduct miscues.

-       Toyota had superior foresight as well as industry:   70% of U.S. auto sales are trucks or SUVs.  Toyota saw this coming, as well as prepped factories for Tundra, Tacoma, 4Runner, as well as Rav4.  Their sales rose 4.5% lastly quarter as well as profits on each vehicle average $2,300 vs Ford at $1,400 as well as Tesla at $268.

-       Voyage’ is starting existent driverless cars inwards Phoenix, AZ:   Slowly, 3T human driving miles as well as 1.2m annual deaths volition get to live prevented.  The revolution has begun inwards the suburbs of Phoenix.

-       Saving WeWork … maybe?   John Legere (the electrical current CEO of T-Mobile) is inwards talks to give-up the ghost the novel CEO of WeWork.  John has taken T-Mobile from $11.50/ portion to $80.  This sinking ship needs a captain – you lot could do worse.

-       Whole-r Foods:   In the footing of: “What volition Jeff Bezos do next,” Amazon said that adjacent yr they volition live launching their ain create of grocery store.

-       KKR asked Walgreens to dinner & a movie:   KKR wants to convey Walgreens Boots private – inwards what would live the world’s largest leveraged buyout.

-       Who’s menu is maxed out…   not mine says Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak.  Steve noticed that HIS Apple credit menu gave him 20 times the credit restrain equally his wife.  Let’s verbalize most sex equality – ok Apple?

-       “Ralph Broke the Internet”:   People were thus excited to sign upwards for Disney+ that they nearly crashed the website.  Disney+ has surpassed 10m subscribers inwards its showtime 24-hour interval of signups, as well as for comparison: Hulu has 28m as well as Netflix 157m.

-       What’s a marketing department?   Juul is implementing a $1B cost-cutting computer program that starts past times laying off 650 marketing employees as well as phasing out their CMO.

-       Boozy:  Anheuser-Busch is buying Portland’s Craft Brew Alliance (BREW).

-       The cows ain’t coming home:  Dean Foods, the biggest milk society inwards the US, filed for bankruptcy.  Consumers are moo-ving toward almond as well as oat milk.

-       "Have you lot ever used Venmo” …  and idea to yourself: “I wonder if Facebook ever idea most this?”  Well, Facebook Pay is here!

-       Netflix nosotros lead hold a problem…   Netflix wonders how long it should allow its movies play inwards theatres earlier pushing them out to their 158m subscribers?  Theatres would similar 72 days – Netflix settled on 26 days for The Irishman.  

-       WeWork …   LOST $1.25B on sales of $934m.  Yes they LOST 25% MORE money than they took in.  “You can’t cook stupid.”

-       ALDI welcomes inwards the New Year's Day …   with nationwide alcohol delivery within the hour.  I constitute that if you’re a 1st timer & usage code ALDIHOLIDAY19 – you lot acquire gratuitous delivery through New Year's.

-       “It’s gotta live electric”…   is the excitement surrounding Ford’s adjacent Mustang.  

-       “I’m alongside the Gov’t as well as I’m hither to help”…   Per SF, the California Trucking Association filed a lawsuit against the Gov’t challenging the novel project law that seeks to give wage as well as do goodness protections to workers inwards the gig economy.  The constabulary would set 70,000 truckers out of work.

-       Relationship problems:    Hulu subscribers who opted inwards to pay for alive TV access volition at nowadays have an additional $10 added to their previous $44.99 bill.  “What’s the indicate inwards cord-cutting again?”


Crypto-Bytes:




-       Bachelor’s Degrees are goin’ down…  in value equally starting salaries for college graduates lead hold grown less than 1% over the past times 2 years.  Worse yet: 10 years afterward graduation, 23% of graduates are inwards jobs that don’t fifty-fifty require a degree.

-       Tencent to construct a virtual bank…   now that Hong Kong’s Securities as well as Futures Commission has approved their novel license.

-       “Cryptocurrency Is a pregnant number for constabulary enforcement”…   said FBI Director Christopher Wray.  “From an investigative perspective, at that topographic point is a consummate lack of toolkits required to follow the money.”

-       Bitcoin options are comin’…   on Bitcoin futures contracts - Jan. 13th, 2020 equally long equally the CME Group gets the greenish calorie-free from regulators.  And nosotros idea that the crypto-market was volatile earlier – potentially nosotros ain’t seen nuttin’ yet.

-       “Can I lead hold a piddling whine alongside that cheese?”    Singapore startup Blockchain Wine has built a novel vino marketplace on Ethereum.  The TATTOO Wine platform (Traceability, Authenticity, Transparency, Trade, Origin as well as Opinion) employs a digital token, leverages EY’s OpsChain platform, as well as is integrated alongside the SAP Commerce solution all inwards the service of proving provenance.

-       “Take some other piddling piece…”   Custody banking concern Northern Trust is testing the trading of fractionalized bonds on a blockchain.  The banking concern is providing property servicing for large, high-grade bonds that volition live tokenized as well as divided to give easier access to retail investors.


Last Week:   Day past times 24-hour interval summary… 




-       The novel Tesla pickup…    will live unveiled on Nov 21st.   The truck volition aspect similar something direct out of Blade Runner, alongside improve utility than a Ford F-150, as well as performance superior to a Porsche 911.

-       Monday:  On Friday, I bought some MSFT as well as held my nose.  The only thing keeping this marketplace upwards hither is the is the gabillions the FEDs are injecting.  A Hong Kong protestor was shot as well as a human being was onslaught burn inwards the 24th calendar week of protests.  Eventually Communist People's Republic of China is going to say "enough" as well as curl over all those protestors, but the global markets would non similar that.  The only argue Communist People's Republic of China hasn't done it already is that they don't desire their stock marketplace collapsing.

-       Tuesday:   This marketplace is agency out over its skis.  It's overbought, over extended as well as running on fumes provided past times the FED.  With earnings behind us, the FED alongside us, as well as the "seasonality" factor – this marketplace wants to give-up the ghost higher.  The technical guys volition tell you lot that having the S&P over 6% higher than its 200-day moving average, is also stretched to give-up the ghost on as well as a multi-week describe dorsum is right exactly about the corner.  I’d similar to believe that – at to the lowest degree earlier they jam us higher.

-       Wednesday:  Markets are inwards an early on forenoon funk because Trump said that if a bargain isn't made, tariffs volition give-up the ghost upwards "substantially".  I looked at AMD the other 24-hour interval as well as passed on it.  That was a dumb move.  AMAT looks great, but it has earnings tomorrow.  CVX is looking interesting to me equally well.

-       Thursday:   The XRT is the ETF that tracks the retail sector.  We’re currently inwards the peak retail flavor as well as it’s when most of the retailers create their money.   I'm going to convey some XRT over $44.80 if it gets there.  As much equally this marketplace is "overdone" they're non letting corrections happen.  We exactly popular higher as well as and thus convey a expose day.  Yes it's crazy.

-       Friday:  Thursday was flat, as well as since apartment isn't practiced enough, practiced old Larry Kudlow came out as well as for most the millionth fourth dimension said that they're "really close" to signing a Phase 1 bargain alongside China.  That kicked the algos as well as the futures inwards gear.  I'm keeping an oculus on MU this am equally it’s definitely going to gap upwards as well as over its 50-day moving average.  I’m liking MU over $48.55, as well as UTX over $149.15.

-       Factually:
o   U.S. industrial production dropped 0.8% inwards October, the largest decline since May 2018 – the 3rddecline inwards output inwards the past times iv months.
o   Manufacturing output cruel 0.6% inwards October.
o   Industrial capacity utilization slumped to 76.7 inwards Oct – its lowest storey inwards 25 months (and alongside numbers less than 80, it’s tough to create money).


Weed:



-       Kush:   recently announced the creation of a hemp trading concern where KSHB volition utilize its network to connect buyers as well as sellers – for a little fee.

-       Jamaica (all the islands) are edifice novel cannabis regs ‘mon…   governing their legal marijuana businesses as well as creating a national route map to back upwards the evolution of the islands’ regulated industry.  The ministry building hopes to finalize the policy document past times the terminate of March 2020.  New’ish laws are on the books in other countries inwards the part such as: St. Vincent, the Grenadines, Antigua, Barbuda, Barbados, St. Kitts as well as Nevis.

-       $85 Billion is the novel U.S. cannabis marketplace size:   higher because of increased incidence levels amidst older consumers, greater populace back upwards for legalization, as well as incremental actions at the province level.  States such equally Florida as well as New Bailiwick of Jersey lead hold begun to opened upwards up their brick as well as mortar retail operations, as well as each medical province could maximize its annualized unit of measurement revenue per dispensary at most $5m per facility.  Colorado, California, Nevada as well as Massachusetts are all expanding their offerings to include dry out flower, as well as other higher margin opportunities.

-       $150 / calendar month / person:    is what Pennsylvania’s lead hold spent inwards medical marijuana dispensaries over the past times 2 years. 

-       A lot of people grew hemp this yr … thinking they’d live able to sell the plants as well as create a ridiculous profit.  With thus much hemp biomass around, some producers are finding that converting the plants to fossil oil is worth over 10 times the money they would acquire for the plants themselves.  In general, many farmers ended upwards alongside failed crops exactly because they didn’t lead hold plenty experience growing hemp inwards their local region.

-       Finally – Finally – Finally:  Major cannabis firms like: MedMen, Aphria, Aurora, CannTrust, Canopy Growth, Cresco Labs, Cronos – as well as the listing goes on – are slashing jobs as well as unloading assets inwards lodge to acquire to profitability.  It’s most time.  In the post-WeWork era, this ‘profitability’ concept is something novel to most of the CEOs of cannabis firms.  They’ve been allowed to be alongside ridiculous valuations on the hope that when global legalization comes – their positioning volition easily convey them across the complete line.  Unfortunately the complete line came sooner than legalization – as well as at nowadays they’re FINALLY being held to a normal concern model.  I loved the quote out of ane cannabis analyst this week: “I don’t think nosotros tin trust a damn thing that whatsoever cannabis CEO says.”  For the longest fourth dimension I idea that they would ‘grow’ into their valuations, but at nowadays whatsoever investment inwards a cannabis society is alone based upon hopium.  Meaning, you lot are hoping that the U.S. legalizes marijuana at a national level, as well as that the FDA releases ingestible guidelines inwards Dec – thus that both markets tin explode. 


Next Week:  Lean long, usage little positions, as well as pray.



   In the past times week, I've read opinions from a lot of guru's as well as there's a handful of take-aways that they all lead hold inwards common:
-       A pullback is likely.
-       2020 volition live extremely volatile. 
-       The marketplace is overvalued past times a large margin.
-       Stock sales past times corporate insiders are at an all-time-high.
-       And the global "rich" are moving out of stocks as well as into cash.

   Melt-up are the only words that come upwards to heed when I aspect outward.  This marketplace reminds me of the belatedly 90's, but this fourth dimension it's worse.  The belatedly 90's melt-up hung on the hopes that all of these novel Internet companies were going to create billions.  The Internet was nevertheless newish, as well as whatsoever society that mentioned their Internet plans was overtly rewarded.  This time, at that topographic point is no novel wonder of the world. This time, the world’s cardinal banks lead hold only decided to impress trillions, as well as purchase listed stocks. The Swiss National banking concern at nowadays owns a tape $94B inwards U.S. stocks.
   It’s utter madness. They are blowing the biggest bubble the footing has ever seen, as well as amazingly it continues higher.  Our ain FED who is doing ‘QE / non QE’ has injected almost a trillion dollars into (behind the scenes) Repo activity as well as that is finding its agency into the markets.  For example, Fri had the New York FED inject $77.093B inwards overnight repo activity alone.  This "liquidity creation" has been going on for weeks at nowadays at the charge per unit of measurement of $70B, $80B, or $90B per day.  Whatever the banks aren't using for reserves, is getting pushed into the market.
   It doesn't affair what kind of bad tidings hits the wires. It is straightaway dismissed.  Am I stunned at how far this has gone? Yes, I am.  I'm old school.  Factually: (a) seeing our debt to gross domestic product ratio at 150% tells me nosotros are at nowadays a 3rd world Earth as well as are going downwards – yet nosotros give-up the ghost up.  (b) When I consider third quarter earnings downwards 2% yr over year, I aspect the marketplace to react negatively – but it goes higher.  And (c) when gross domestic product estimates went from +2.5% to 2, to1.5, as well as at nowadays to 0.9%, I expected the marketplace to fade – but it went upwards some more.  We are inwards a menstruum where null fundamental makes a damn chip of difference.  We're inwards a MOMO (momentum) driven, FOMO (fear of missing out) driven, Central banking concern driven, stock buy-back driven, market.  I lead hold NO clue how far this tin go.
   The occupation is that there's no bell ringing at the top.  You won't know when a ruddy 24-hour interval is the start of a truthful deport market, or only something that gets bought upwards the adjacent day. You won't know if a large gap upwards as well as a greenish run day, is exactly continuation, or a blow off top.  One 24-hour interval you’ll purchase something that goes ruddy as well as doesn’t recover.  It could live Mon or February.  Every merchandise you lot create has to live based on that reality.
   I liken existence inwards this marketplace to walking on egg shells patch playing musical chairs.  Each 24-hour interval I wonder when the bubble volition come across its pivot as well as downwards nosotros volition go. When this pops, everyone's going to elbow grease as well as acquire out at the same time, as well as that's non possible.  It's scary.  Good luck out there.


Tips:

Top Equity Recommendations:
   HODL’s:
-       Aurora (ACB = $2.73 / inwards @ $3.07)
-       First Majestic Silver (AG = $10.60 / inwards @ 10.50)
-       Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $15.33 / inwards @ $22.17),
-       DRD Gold (DGD = $4.34 / inwards @ $4.20),
-       GBTC Bitcoin (GBTC = $10.26 / inwards @ $10.01), 
-       Microsoft (MSFT = $149.97 / inwards @ $145),
-       Pan American Silver (PAAS = $18.41 / inwards @ 18.00),
-       United Tech (UTX = $149.36 / inwards @ $149.15)
-       XRT Retail (XRT = $44.86 / inwards at $44.80)

   Crypto:
-       Bitcoin (BTC = $8,600)
-       Ethereum (ETH = $185)
-       Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $265)

   Options:
-       RIOT ($1.51): 
o   Bot Jan 17, Sold $3 Call / Sold $3 Put / Bot $4 Call for $1.85 CR
o   Bot Jan 17, Sold $2 Call / Sold $2 Put / Bot $3 Call for $1.45 CR
o   (can only lose money if RIOT falls below $0.70).

   Thoughts:
-       Google (GOOGL = $1,333.54)   Maybe if Google hadn’t given its medical information collection functioning the Bond-villainesque call “Project Nightingale” it wouldn’t lead hold stirred upwards thus much negative press.  I’m surprised that Google didn’t consider the wellness information regulators coming a mile away.  If Google’s bargain alongside Ascension sounded a piddling suspicious, Project Nightingale confirmed it.  And at nowadays GOOGL volition offering checking accounts inwards conjunction alongside Citigroup, non equally a source of revenue, but equally a agency to rails spending.  Hmmm, Google isn’t SPECTRE, but it seems to live straying into that ‘fuzzy’ territory.  That territory could displace problem alongside province as well as Federal regulators, which could force GOOGL farther off its recent all-time high.  With GOOGL’s IV rank pitifully low, debit spreads are interesting merchandise candidates.  If you lot are bearish on GOOGL, the long set vertical that’s curt the $1,295 set as well as long the $1,300 set inwards the Dec monthly expiration is a bearish strategy that has a 70% probability of making 50% of its max turn a profit earlier expiring.

   Follow me on StockTwits.com to acquire my daily thoughts as well as trades – my grip is: taylorpamm.

Please live rubber out there!

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