This Week inward Barrons: 11-3-2019:
Thoughts:
When thinking of changing someone, yous only have got 2 paths. Either: (1) you modify the way they GET what they want, or (2) you change WHAT they want. Jeff Bezos together with Bill Gates are 2 men who changed how people GOT what they already wanted. Nelson Mandela together with Steve Jobs changed what people WANTED in the start place. Players inside whatsoever vertical, demand to recognize which path they’re on.
This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping (looking similar Mandela together with Jobs) when he made his start populace remarks nigh blockchain technology. “We volition brand the blockchain an of import breakthrough for independent innovation. We volition clarify its principal direction, growth investment, focus inward on a number of key center technologies, together with accelerate its development.” The full general sentiment of Xi’s comments was unproblematic – blockchain applied scientific discipline is actually of import for China’s hereafter together with Red People's Republic of China plans to live its global leader.
On Friday, China's 3 state-owned wireless carriers (looking similar Bezos together with Gates) started offering 5G subscription packages – months ahead of schedule. Their destination is to have got 5G service available inward at to the lowest degree 50 cities past times the cease of the year. China volition have got the world's largest commercial 5G network. China is expected to have got nigh 130,000 5G base of operations stations past times the cease of the year, vs the U.S.’s 10,000 at best.
The pursuit of Bitcoin, blockchain, together with digital property superiority volition conk this generation’s Space Race. Its underlying methodology is probable to lay the foundation for the most disruptive conception since the Internet. There is no putting this genie dorsum into the bottle. Other countries (including the U.S.) have got chosen to mostly ignore Bitcoin together with blockchain technology, together with are fifty-fifty actively working to stifle it.
Over the terminal few decades, Red People's Republic of China has transitioned from a province that was reliant on stealing intellectual belongings – to 1 that is pushing the measuring of conception across everything from Ai to 5G. The motion to conk a tech leader was made past times combining a superior educational environs amongst a greater travel ethic – where most employees travel xiv hours days – vi days a week.
In contrast, the U.S. has been overly negative on diverse aspects of the digital property manufacture for a number of years. Our Congress together with the Senate have got publicly berated 1 of America’s largest companies over plans to create a digital currency together with build the infrastructure surrounding it. The SEC has spent billions of dollars chasing downwards startups together with prosecuting companies that have got chosen to encompass blockchain, piece refraining from issuing novel rules or clarifications surrounding their electrical flow regulatory environment. Notes from SEC meetings demo that they actively manipulated the cost of Bitcoin inward 2017-2018 using futures products. The IRS has clarified its position surrounding digital assets to the signal that it maximizes taxation revenue at the expense of conception together with marketplace seat participation. This negative message has fifty-fifty been echoed past times our President when he said: “Bitcoin, blockchain tech., together with digital assets are non a priority for America.”
While unfortunate, this is non unexpected. The U.S. suffers from: Innovator’s Dilemma. It’s a concept popularized past times author Clayton Christensen where he lays out an declaration for: “How successful, outstanding companies tin ship away do everything ‘right’ together with yet soundless lose their marketplace seat leadership – or fifty-fifty neglect – every bit new, unexpected competitors rising together with accept over the market.” These unexpected competitors are commonly disruptive technologies together with the incumbents are caught off guard because what they have got done inward the past times has worked – so they are tedious to modify their existing ways.
This is precisely what is happening inward the U.S. today. We are the world’s most powerful country. We command the global fiscal organisation together with the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We have got benefited from controlling the global reserve currency, including the powerfulness to impress money together with weaponize the dollar against all other currencies. There are 2 novel challengers to King Dollar’s status: (1) Bitcoin, together with (2) China’s digital currency (DCEP). We know that China is taking digital currencies seriously. Even on Friday, the Vice Chairman of China’s Center for International Economic Exchanges confirmed specific plans for implementing their national digital currency. It’s clear that Red People's Republic of China is laid upward to encompass 1 of the most of import technologies of the future, piece the U.S. is onset regulating together with stifling whatsoever conception associated amongst it.
I personally e'er thought that innovation, entrepreneurship, together with keeping an offensive mindset were inward our DNA. Maybe I’m wrong, together with nosotros desire to transition from a province of wealth creation to 1 of wealth re-distribution. I thought everybody realized that our hereafter would live global, automated, together with largely decentralized. The electrical flow U.S. mindset of requiring innovators to enquire the regime for permission is unlikely to live successful. Innovation requires speed, a feel of urgency, together with an iterative procedure that constantly pushes the envelope. All areas where governments to non excel. The best thing nosotros tin ship away do is to acquire our regime out of the way. If nosotros don’t, the adjacent mass nosotros volition live reading volition live titled: “The Innovators Dilemma Part 2 – How America Was Disrupted By Its Own Playbook.” A typical entrepreneurial path asks for forgiveness instead of permission. Entrepreneurship recognizes that ideas are ameliorate shared. Generosity together with communication regularly supercede scarcity together with paranoia. History shows that winning corporate cultures thrive on community together with caring – piece losing one’s pass their efforts constructing walled-gardens. I’m non worried nigh moving downwards the incorrect path for change; however, I worry a lot that we’re non changing at all.
The catamenia from Nov to Apr is the best 6-month investing catamenia – dating dorsum to 1950.
The Market:
Sports fans e'er expression at outcomes start – together with eventually examine the process. Engineers expression at the processes that led upward to the resultant – together with and so examine the result. Instead of asking, “How did my squad do?” - Engineers ask: “Did the organisation do what it was supposed to do?” Engineers know that yous tin ship away ‘game’ whatsoever process, but eventually the game volition grab upward amongst you. For example: yelling at a referee because yous didn’t similar a telephone yell upward is non nearly every bit effective every bit finding a ameliorate winning formula / strategy.
This past times calendar week was FED week. Just nigh everyone expected a quarter signal charge per unit of measurement cutting together with that's what nosotros got. Chairman Powell went on to say: “We volition non heighten rates before nosotros view pregnant inflation.” Trust me, anyone who buys nutrient or pays whatsoever medical bills is seeing pregnant inflation. What he meant to say was: “We volition non heighten rates before nosotros view pregnant inflation – the way WE mensurate inflation.” Chairman Powell went on to say: “Banks volition live adding to their electrical flow levels of reserves.” Taken together, this agency that insanely depression rates are hither forever, together with he’s going to conk on adding liquidity to the banks via the REPO highway. A total of 54 primal banks (CBs) inward both developed together with emerging markets have got cutting their base of operations involvement rates this year. We're living through a synchronized global slowdown together with every CB is pushing buttons together with pulling levers trying to hold their heads higher upward water.
It comes downwards to a pick betwixt adding to a greater extent than debt, OR fessing upward to the economical reality together with allowing a recession / depression. That pick is easy. Our CBs know that amongst rates this low, “What else tin ship away yous do amongst your money?” No 1 wants 1.5% returns, together with the only other returns come upward amongst a dramatic uptick inward risk. Could this economical deportment conk on some other v or 10 years? Logic, mutual sense, together with history all say no. But logic together with mutual feel have got been pushed aside for such marvels every bit negative involvement rates, $120B Repos, ‘Pro-forma’ earnings, together with other non-fundamental tricks.
Which brings me to the thought that piece it seems so "yesterday", I volition e'er remove hold fast to the premise of accumulating aureate together with silver. When the twenty-four hr catamenia comes that the bubble hits the pin, the response to the question: "Where are yous putting your money" changes quickly. In the hither together with now, nosotros got the FED cut, together with nosotros got an all-time S&P high. If this holds for a brace days, they’re going to essay together with walk us higher into twelvemonth end. So, remove hold your olfactory organ together with acquire laid upward to purchase into the madness. How sad!
Info Bits:
- October’s ISM manufacturing index was 48.3… worse-than-expected together with contracting. Non-energy related manufacturing isn’t coming dorsum whatsoever fourth dimension soon.
- Perspective: In an opened upward missive of the alphabet to Mark Zuckerberg, Aaron Sorkin criticized Facebook’s exercise of posting politically mistaken ads. Mr. Sorkin, the Academy Award-winning screenwriter of “The Social Network,” said, “If I’d known that Mark felt that way, I’d have got had the Winklevoss twins invent Facebook.”
- "Profit puppy…" is the business office of a company's work organisation that makes huge chunks of profits similar Ford's F-150 pickup truck, Lululemon's yoga pants, together with Amazon's AWS cloud service.
- "Promo puppy…" is a shiny, cuddly, gratuitous perk that attracts customers to sign up. Think: gratuitous streaming for a year, gratuitous transportation amongst Amazon Prime, or "60K vantage points if yous pass $4K inward the start 4 months".
- WeWork Survived: WeWork is non publicly traded given it lately canceled its IPO. The injured unicorn (that loses $219,000 every hour) was weeks from running out of cash – when SoftBank bailed it out with $8B of novel money. Ex-CEO Adam Neuman walked away amongst $1.7B, yet their employees' options are basically worthless. All inward all: Softbank pumped inward $8B to a greater extent than to ain 80%, WeWork's valuation brutal from $47B to $8B, together with it's soundless alive.
- No remainder 'till everyone is Primed... Amazon showed investors it'll do whatever it takes to musical rhythm out Walmart together with Target inward the transportation wars – similar spending 46% to a greater extent than on transportation so your packages conk far inward 1 twenty-four hr catamenia instead of 2.
- Bud-pocalypse: Budweiser is experiencing its ain apocalypse every bit it watches its ain marketplace seat part of the U.S. beer marketplace seat autumn to almost 5%.
- It's official… Google is the novel possessor of Fitbit for $7.35 / part = $2.1B. This is a large win for Fitbit. In August, Fitbit’s shares were trading at $2.81, downwards from their high inward the summertime of 2015 of $51.90 per share. The motion amps upward the wearables race. It's likewise causing some consternation over Google collecting fifty-fifty more data nigh us.
- New noise-canceling AirPods: Apple unveiled novel $250 AirPods so that yous didn’t have got to constantly worry nigh losing 1 of your $159 AirPods.
- According to Barron’s… only 27% of money managers are bullish on the stock marketplace seat over the adjacent 12 months – which is the lowest grade inward 20 years.
- Clients have got withdrawn money … for 3 direct years from stock picking hedge funds. That is the longest stretch of cyberspace outflows from such funds since 1990. The argue isn’t hard to figure out: hedge funds are no longer real skillful at picking stocks. It seems the best people inward the world, but are non having ‘fun’ picking stocks anymore.
- Samsung teases nigh a novel foldable 'clamshell phone' … after announcing a 56% turn a profit miss.
- Merger: If Fiat / Chrysler together with Peugeot concur on a merger, they could create the fourth-largest automaker inward the world. Peugeot's board has approved this, they’re but waiting on Chrysler. The enquiry nosotros are actually concerned nigh is volition the board dinner live hosted at an Italian or French restaurant?
- China Tariffs: The timing of the "Phase One" deal amongst Red People's Republic of China is straight off upward inward air amongst he APEC Summit beingness cancelled. This adds to my skepticism together with confirms my fears that the "skinny deal" is hard to swallow. The only palable bargain that I view is 1 shrouded in: a temporary tariff freeze, investment restrictions, working capital missive of the alphabet controls, render chain roadblocks, together with their ain tech war.
- NAFTA 1.1: I can’t view whatsoever way that the House (in the midst of an impeachment) volition overstep the signature merchandise achievement.
- Potential Government Shutdown: I hear that the budget bargain together with the debt ceiling is raised until after the election. But the stopgap spending mensurate that funds the regime (CR) runs out on Nov 21.
- The U.S. Dollar… has been the world’s reserve currency for decades, but that condition volition come upward nether threat every bit China, Russian Federation together with the EU make moves to lower the Dollar’s status.
Crypto-Bytes:
- China announces imminent release of Digital Currency targeting SWIFT together with the States Dollar.
- Green Shoots? A bitcoin cost indicator with a strong rail tape of predicting large moves has but turned bullish. By year-end, BTC may live laid to challenge the 2019 high of $13,880. But, inward the curt term, a pullback to $8,820 looks probable every bit short-term charts are reporting buyer exhaustion.
- Loyalty Tracker: Following Xi Jinping’s bombshell phonation communication terminal calendar week urging his countrymen to “seize the opportunity” created past times blockchain, China’s Communist Party released a decentralized app for members to attest their loyalty.
- Bank Approvals: China’s primal banking concern volition certify eleven types of fiscal solutions that are widely used for digital payment together with blockchain services nether a novel verification organisation called the Certification of Fintech Products.
- Property Tokens: Overstock’s security token platform tZERO has partnered on a projection that volition tokenize $643m inward existent estate development. The startups volition tokenize portions of properties financed past times U.K.-based Alliance Investments.
- Almost Heaven: Canadian investment fund director 3iQ has received initial approving to launch a closed-end bitcoin fund on either the Toronto Stock Exchange or the TSX Venture Exchange later on this quarter.
Last Week: Day past times twenty-four hr catamenia summary…
- Monday: This marketplace seat is running for all the incorrect reasons. Tell me what has gone so RIGHT that our FED had to inject some other $76B into the organisation terminal NIGHT. All unopen to the world, nations are trying to travel unopen to the Dollar beingness the global reserve currency together with that’s causing a slight FED panic. This is NOT natural or normal. Yes the marketplace seat is up, but it’s non on economical releases. There's a lot of moving parts out at that topographic point together with NONE of them are real good.
- Tuesday: Our rates are so low, they don't fifty-fifty musical rhythm out inflation. There's only 1 game inward town, together with that’s buying extremely overpriced stocks. No 1 wants to purchase them – therefore the meager volume. With the FED printing similar a madman together with amongst charge per unit of measurement cuts coming – those amongst strong stomachs are soundless nibbling. In reality, the FED has injected to a greater extent than dollars into this marketplace seat this past times calendar week – than it used to over 3 months. And the money’s got to conk somewhere.
- Wednesday: The only thing that matters to this marketplace seat is how much money the FED is injecting into the overnight REPO. Our 3rd quarter gross domestic product came inward at an annual +1.9% rate. It’s the perfect tempest for higher prices together with potentially a run into S&P 3100. I’m listening to Powell’s tidings conference after our FED’s charge per unit of measurement cut, together with it’s comical how he’s dancing unopen to the existent facts.
- Friday: The fearfulness of a merchandise bargain delay was bad, but the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered it's unmarried biggest drib inward 38 years. On the surface the jobs study showed 131k jobs created, BUT the BLS birth/death model injected 274k of those 131k jobs. In reality, we LOST 143,000 JOBS terminal month! Yes I know that Kudlow announced that "Trump is optimistic nigh a merchandise bargain amongst China!" All that pales inward comparing to the headline: “N.Y. FED injects $73.1B of securities inward Overnight REPO Operations”. So the banksters got some other $73B to play with, the Jobs numbers were goosed, Kudlow puts out some "trade hype", together with to hell amongst whatsoever economical reality.
Weed:
- In October, the utilisation of CBD - DOUBLED over terminal year’s total.
- Females betwixt ages 35 to 44… most often utilisation CBD products.
- Males over historic catamenia 45… are consuming to a greater extent than CBD than younger men.
- Top 3 reasons for using CBD are: inflammation, anxiety, together with depression.
- The cannabis landscape volition grow significantly… as consumers encompass novel products including formulations amongst higher THC concentrations inward the CBD:THC ratio – together with additional full-spectrum blends (CBN together with CGG).
- 66% of Americans favor cannabis legalization.
- Canadian cannabis retail sales grew 18.6% month-over-month.
- MedMen Revenues TRIPLE Year-over-Year: Its California retail run charge per unit of measurement surpassed $110m on an annual basis, amongst thirteen stores inward functioning across the Golden State together with losses contracting past times 7%.
- Mexico inched closer to adult-use legalization with the outlines of adult-use legislation taking shape inward the country’s Senate. Under a draft document, Mexican lawmakers would legalize recreational cannabis sales to consumers eighteen yrs. together with older for private use, but impose stringent regulation limiting unusual ownership, vertical integration, together with the resale of licenses.
- Hall of Fame running dorsum Franco Harris… has joined CBD fellowship DouleuRx every bit an investor together with partner. The Chicago-based fellowship is a vertically integrated manufacturer of THC-free CBD products that include hurting relief cream ($90 for 1,200 mg.), tinctures ($80 for 1,000 mg.), together with Five Hour Energy trend CBD shots ($35 a 12-pack, 10 mg. each).
- Hexo is laying off 200 people in an essay to trim back costs together with attain profitability. Among those leaving are COO Arno Groll together with CMO Nick Davies.
- 60% of Americans are familiar amongst CBD, but 40% believe that it’s but some other quest marijuana.
- 66% of Americans believe CBD is safe, together with most often used for: hurting management (52%), stress or anxiety reduction (50%), together with slumber issues (43%).
- 79% of Americans believe that CBD should live regulated at the federal level, and 70% said that they would have got to a greater extent than confidence in the security of CBD if they were regulated.
- USDA announced long-delayed hemp rules, calling for total THC testing:
o Maintaining information on the dry soil where hemp is produced,
o Disposal of plants non coming together necessary requirements,
o Establishing a theatre licensing requirements, and
o Establishing a project design for hemp producers inward states that do non already have got an approved hemp production plan.
- Illinois is laid to get recreational cannabis sales… at the start of the novel twelvemonth – but a lack of retail stores volition bound the rollout into a $2.5B market. Many of Illinois’ local governments are banning marijuana businesses – thereby, dramatically limiting client access to a retail environment. On a per-capita basis, that’s nigh 10% of the number of adult-use stores inward Illinois vs Colorado.
- Binge drinking rates… are dropping inward States states where cannabis is legal.
- 18% of Canadians (over fifteen years old)… reported using cannabis inward Q1 of 2019. A 29% growth over a twelvemonth earlier.
- Smoking cannabis protects binge drinkers from liver diseases. A recent study suggests that heavy drinkers who smoked marijuana had 'significantly lower odds' of developing serious problems amongst their liver. Also, at that topographic point was a 45% drib inward obese liver illness together with a 38% drib inward cancer of the liver.
Next Week: Lean long, utilisation little positions, together with pray.
In the past times 2 weeks, our FED has pushed over $650B into our bank’s REPO side, together with and so (just for grins) they cutting rates. The ECB started their ain QE computer programme on Nov 1st, together with the Bank of Nihon said that fifty-fifty they have got room for to a greater extent than stimulus. It's a globally coordinated money printing spree of epic proportions. No affair how ugly the economical reports acquire (the PMI falling at the fastest measuring inward 38 years) – the marketplace seat continues to motion higher. Honestly, every bit long every bit our FED is ‘gifting’ the banks ¾ of a Trillion dollars every fifteen days – this marketplace seat volition conk on to motion higher.
I retrieve coming into this twelvemonth amongst the S&Ps downwards 20%, together with it was my view that (after a slight bounce) our economical numbers wouldn't live plenty to sustain us together with we'd curl over into a hefty sell-off. Obviously I must have got been smokin’ Drano because this marketplace seat does NOT do ‘sell-off’ or ‘roll-over’. This marketplace seat is the ultimate game of musical chairs. One twenty-four hr catamenia something volition hap that volition scare investors toward the exits, but until that fourth dimension nosotros are moving inward 1 management – higher.
It's terribly hard to purchase stocks inward this market, knowing that they’re upward alone because he marketplace seat is rigged. Yet what's the choice? Do nix together with sentinel the marketplace seat hold going higher without you? You tin ship away expression for cheaper value stocks, but at that topographic point are none. You tin ship away essay using over-priced options to lessen the cost of entry, but together with so you'll demand a complex ‘back-up’ project design to survive.
Obviously, I’m frustrated amongst this market, together with am only playing amongst little size. After all, we're 10 years into an engineered economical bounce, together with they’ve used every fob inward the mass to acquire us here. Can this marketplace seat mover higher for some other 10 years? I don't suspect so, but together with so 1 time to a greater extent than I never expected it to hitting all-time highs this year. The higher this marketplace seat goes – the to a greater extent than I similar aureate together with silver. When this bubble meets its pin, gold, silverish together with Bitcoin may live the only things left standing. Lean long, utilisation little positions, together with pray.
Tips:
Top Equity Recommendations:
HODL’s:
- Aurora (ACB = $3.58 / inward @ $3.07)
- First Majestic Silver (AG = $10.99 / inward @ 10.50)
- Canopy Growth Corp (CGC = $19.71 / inward @ $22.17),
- DRD Gold (DGD = $4.99 / inward @ $4.20),
- GBTC Bitcoin (GBTC = $11.20 / inward @ $10.01),
- Pan American Silver (PAAS = $17.06 / inward @ 18.00)
Crypto:
- Bitcoin (BTC = $9,300)
- Ethereum (ETH = $185)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $300)
Options:
- RIOT ($1.57):
o Bot January 17, Sold $3 Call / Sold $3 Put / Bot $4 Call for $1.85 CR
o Bot January 17, Sold $2 Call / Sold $2 Put / Bot $3 Call for $1.45 CR
o (can only lose money if RIOT falls below $0.70).
Thoughts:
- Volatility Index (VIX) The S&P 500 hitting a novel all-time high again, together with why shouldn’t it? The SPX’s rally has pushed the spot VIX into its lower zone, but that doesn’t hateful that everyone is buying the perma-bull story. Both the Nov together with Dec /VX futures are trading at a relatively steep contango to the VIX – suggesting that the marketplace seat fears some drama toward the cease of 2019. There’s no guarantee that the marketplace seat volition sell off together with force the VIX higher, but a contrarian mightiness view an chance inward a bullish VIX trade. If yous are bullish on the VIX, the long telephone yell upward vertical that’s long the $15 Call together with curt the $18 Call inward the Dec expiration is a bullish strategy that has a 52% probability of profit.
Follow me on StockTwits.com to acquire my daily thoughts together with trades – my handgrip is: taylorpamm.
Please live security out there!
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Until adjacent calendar week – live safe.
R.F. Culbertson
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