Fw Tidings Interrogation #4 For 2020: Volition The Overall Participation Charge Per Unit Of Measurement Commencement Declining Inwards 2020, Or Volition It Deed To A Greater Extent Than Sideways (Or Slightly Up) Inwards 2020?

Earlier I posted or then questions for adjacent year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I'm adding or then thoughts, as well as mayhap or then predictions for each question.

4) Participation Rate: In Nov 2020, the overall participation charge per unit of measurement was at 63.2%, upwardly slightly year-over-year from 62.9% inward Nov 2019.   The BLS is projecting the overall participation charge per unit of measurement volition turn down to 61.2% yesteryear 2028.  Will the overall participation charge per unit of measurement offset declining inward 2020, or volition it deed to a greater extent than sideways (or slightly up) inward 2020?

The overall labor forcefulness participation charge per unit of measurement is the per centum of the working historic flow population (16 + years old) inward the labor force.   Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 large percentage of the turn down inward the participation charge per unit of measurement since 2000 is due to demographics as well as long term trends.

Click on graph for larger image.

The Labor Force Participation Rate inward Nov 2019 was at 63.2%, upwardly from the wheel depression of 62.4% inward September 2015.

Some analysts were expecting the overall participation charge per unit of measurement to recover to pre-recession levels (over 66%) but that analysis ignored demographics as well as long term trends.

Note: Due to demographics, I also follow the prime number working historic flow participation as well as utilise population ratio.

In September, the BLS released their updated Labor Force projections through 2028. Their projections demo the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) declining to 61.2% inward 2018 from the electrical flow level.  Although it is uncertain when the turn down inward the overall LFPR volition begin, demographics advise the LFPR volition turn down almost ii per centum points over the adjacent decade.

It is possible that the participation charge per unit of measurement volition increase for other groups similar prime number working historic flow women, but that is unclear - as well as those possible tendency changes volition belike last overwhelmed yesteryear the larger demographic trend.

This graph shows the average participation charge per unit of measurement for prime number working historic flow cohort yesteryear v yr groups (25 to 54 years old), as well as the adjacent 4 older cohorts.

Note that the median somebody inward the Boomer generation volition last 66 inward 2020, as well as that the youngest somebody volition last inward the 55 to 59 cohort - when the participation charge per unit of measurement starts to decline.

Note: The participation charge per unit of measurement for older historic flow groups has been increasing over the terminal distich of decades, but that is far less pregnant than the give away of people moving into the adjacent historic flow group.

All of the Baby Boom generation is at i time inward historic flow groups alongside significantly declining participation rates, as well as I await this volition offset a downward tendency for the overall participation charge per unit of measurement over the adjacent decade, fifty-fifty alongside a salubrious chore market.

So I await the overall participation charge per unit of measurement to turn down inward 2020 to only nether 63% yesteryear the destination of the year.

Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2020 as well as a few predictions:

• Question #3 for 2020: What volition the unemployment charge per unit of measurement last inward Dec 2020?
• Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation charge per unit of measurement offset declining inward 2020, or volition it deed to a greater extent than sideways (or slightly up) inward 2020?
• Question #5 for 2020: How much volition reward increase inward 2020?
• Question #6 for 2020: Will the heart inflation charge per unit of measurement rising inward 2020? Will likewise much inflation last a delineate of piece of work organisation inward 2020?
• Question #7 for 2020: Will the Fed cutting or enhance rates inward 2020, as well as if so, yesteryear how much?
• Question #8 for 2020: How much volition RI increase inward 2020? How almost housing starts as well as novel habitation sales inward 2020?
• Question #9 for 2020: What volition hap alongside family prices inward 2020?
• Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increase or decrease inward 2020?