Earlier I posted some questions for side past times side year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I'm adding some thoughts, together with maybe some predictions for each question.
5) Real Wage Growth: Wage growth was disappointing inwards 2019 (up 3.1% year-over-year every bit of November). How much will wages increment inwards 2020?
The most followed wage indicator is the “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly job report.
Click on graph for larger image.
Nominal wage growth (blue line) had been running some 2% from 2010 through 2015 amongst a slight upward trend.
Then the measuring of wage growth started to pickup inwards 2016. However wage growth inwards 2019 was disappointing (only upwards 3.1% YoY inwards November).
However, amongst depression inflation, workers was some existent wage growth inwards 2019. The cherry-red draw is existent wage growth (adjusted using headline CPI). Real payoff increased during the crisis because CPI declined sharply. CPI was real depression inwards 2015 - due to the refuse inwards fossil oil prices - together with then existent wage growth picked upwards inwards 2015.
There are 2 quarterly sources for net turn a profit data: 1) “Hourly Compensation,” from the BLS’s Productivity together with Costs; together with 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary together with create goodness compensation. All 3 information serial are different, together with most of the focus of late has been the CES serial (used inwards the graph above).
The minute graph is from the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. This mensurate is the year-over-year modify inwards nominal payoff for individuals.
By next wage changes for individuals, this removes the demographic composition effects (older workers who are retiring tend to live on higher paid, together with younger workers but entering the workforce tend to live on lower paid).
The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth some 4% inwards belatedly 2016, but dipped inwards 2017. At the destination of 2018, wage growth was dorsum upwards to some 4% - together with at 3.7% inwards Nov 2019.
Note: Economist Ernie Tedeschi has an first-class word on Twitter using the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker, together with breaking it downwards past times quantile. The bottom quantile is seeing the fastest wage growth, peradventure suggesting some pickup inwards payoff inwards 2020.
As the project marketplace continues to tighten, nosotros should run into to a greater extent than wage pressure level every bit companies accept to compete for employees. I expression to run into some farther increases inwards both the Average hourly earning from the CES, together with inwards the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. Perhaps nominal payoff volition increment to the mid 3% arrive at inwards 2020 according to the CES.
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2020 together with a few predictions:
• Question #3 for 2020: What volition the unemployment charge per unit of measurement live on inwards Dec 2020?
• Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation charge per unit of measurement commencement declining inwards 2020, or volition it deed to a greater extent than sideways (or slightly up) inwards 2020?
• Question #5 for 2020: How much volition payoff increment inwards 2020?
• Question #6 for 2020: Will the inwardness inflation charge per unit of measurement ascent inwards 2020? Will every bit good much inflation live on a draw of piece of work concern inwards 2020?
• Question #7 for 2020: Will the Fed cutting or enhance rates inwards 2020, together with if so, past times how much?
• Question #8 for 2020: How much volition RI increment inwards 2020? How almost housing starts together with novel dwelling family sales inwards 2020?
• Question #9 for 2020: What volition come about amongst family prices inwards 2020?
• Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increment or decrease inwards 2020?
5) Real Wage Growth: Wage growth was disappointing inwards 2019 (up 3.1% year-over-year every bit of November). How much will wages increment inwards 2020?
The most followed wage indicator is the “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly job report.
Click on graph for larger image.Nominal wage growth (blue line) had been running some 2% from 2010 through 2015 amongst a slight upward trend.
Then the measuring of wage growth started to pickup inwards 2016. However wage growth inwards 2019 was disappointing (only upwards 3.1% YoY inwards November).
However, amongst depression inflation, workers was some existent wage growth inwards 2019. The cherry-red draw is existent wage growth (adjusted using headline CPI). Real payoff increased during the crisis because CPI declined sharply. CPI was real depression inwards 2015 - due to the refuse inwards fossil oil prices - together with then existent wage growth picked upwards inwards 2015.
There are 2 quarterly sources for net turn a profit data: 1) “Hourly Compensation,” from the BLS’s Productivity together with Costs; together with 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary together with create goodness compensation. All 3 information serial are different, together with most of the focus of late has been the CES serial (used inwards the graph above).
The minute graph is from the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. This mensurate is the year-over-year modify inwards nominal payoff for individuals.By next wage changes for individuals, this removes the demographic composition effects (older workers who are retiring tend to live on higher paid, together with younger workers but entering the workforce tend to live on lower paid).
The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth some 4% inwards belatedly 2016, but dipped inwards 2017. At the destination of 2018, wage growth was dorsum upwards to some 4% - together with at 3.7% inwards Nov 2019.
Note: Economist Ernie Tedeschi has an first-class word on Twitter using the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker, together with breaking it downwards past times quantile. The bottom quantile is seeing the fastest wage growth, peradventure suggesting some pickup inwards payoff inwards 2020.
As the project marketplace continues to tighten, nosotros should run into to a greater extent than wage pressure level every bit companies accept to compete for employees. I expression to run into some farther increases inwards both the Average hourly earning from the CES, together with inwards the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. Perhaps nominal payoff volition increment to the mid 3% arrive at inwards 2020 according to the CES.
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2020 together with a few predictions:
• Question #3 for 2020: What volition the unemployment charge per unit of measurement live on inwards Dec 2020?
• Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation charge per unit of measurement commencement declining inwards 2020, or volition it deed to a greater extent than sideways (or slightly up) inwards 2020?
• Question #5 for 2020: How much volition payoff increment inwards 2020?
• Question #6 for 2020: Will the inwardness inflation charge per unit of measurement ascent inwards 2020? Will every bit good much inflation live on a draw of piece of work concern inwards 2020?
• Question #7 for 2020: Will the Fed cutting or enhance rates inwards 2020, together with if so, past times how much?
• Question #8 for 2020: How much volition RI increment inwards 2020? How almost housing starts together with novel dwelling family sales inwards 2020?
• Question #9 for 2020: What volition come about amongst family prices inwards 2020?
• Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increment or decrease inwards 2020?
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